ArmInfo.One should not wait for the signing of a peace treaty in Moscow on November 9by Armenia and Azerbaijan. Alexander Skakov, Working Group Coordinator at the Central Eurasia Research Center, RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, told ArmInfo.
"I do not think that such a thing can be signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia with the participation of Russia, especially on this day. At the same time, the parties to the conflict can most likely reach an agreement on the delimitation of at least part of the border, at least, on the beginning of negotiations on this issue. An alternative to such an agreement is the constant use of the situation at the border in order to provoke various conflict situations. It is beneficial for all parties to unblock communications, Of course, some more than others. It is clear that due to the weaker economy it is less profitable for Armenia, "he stressed.
Since mid-October, conflicting reports have been spreading in Armenia about the upcoming meeting of the leaders of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan in Moscow on November 9. Some media outlets, referring to a "reliable diplomatic source", report that the two documents to be signed by Pashinyan and Aliyev through Putin's mediation are in fact final, and they will not be signed only in case of force majeure. As the first document, Yerevan and Baku allegedly recognize the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan and mutual territorial integrity according to the maps of the General Staff of the USSR Ministry of Defense of the 1920s. The second document will fix the unblocking of communications, including the connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan. The Armenian Foreign Ministry refuted this information.
Seeing revanchist sentiments in the Armenian society, Skakov believes that any Armenian government making concessions to Azerbaijan will be subjected to powerful street pressure. And the leader of Armenia, who renounced Artsakh, will immediately cease to be one. In this light, the expert states that Yerevan has its own interests, which may well not coincide with the interests of the Russian Federation.
Against this background, the expert believes that in addition to the indirect discussion and agreement of some secondary issues, there is no other work being carried out at this stage. And important cases of settlement are postponed for the future after the settlement of border problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Skakov conditions even the possibility of normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations with the process of demarcation of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which, according to him, is in the foreground today.
"Thus, in any case, one way or another, Turkey today indirectly participates in almost all regional processes in the South Caucasus. And Yerevan, accordingly, periodically discusses with Moscow and, of course, with the West, the prospects for relations with Ankara, first of all, due to the irreversibility of this process in the light of the discussion of unblocking regional communications and Ankara's influence on Baku. Accordingly, without coordinating actions with Turkey, the discussion, especially the solution of any important regional issue today is simply impossible, "he summed up.