Tuesday, November 2 2021 16:35

ArmInfo. The prospect of the acquiring ground communication between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan through the territory of Armenia (the so-called Zangezur corridor,  Ed. note) is fraught with new threats for Iran, since the  implementation of these plans by Ankara and Baku will lead to the  formation of a completely new security environment.

Victor Nadein-Raevsky, senior researcher at IMEMO RAS, expressed a similar  opinion to ArmInfo.

"Tehran understands very well that the "corridor" is in reality the  most important component of the Turkish "Great Turan" program, which  simply cannot but cause concern not only in Iran, but also in all  other neighboring countries of Turkey. In this light, behind the  current tension between Iran and Azerbaijan, without a doubt, the  interests of significantly more powerful players than Baku are  visible, "he said. Among the latter, in addition to Turkey, the  orientalist considers Israel and the United States. And the breaking  of the previous status quo around the Karabakh conflict, according to  him, has significantly increased Turkish influence in the region, the  degree of Azerbaijan's cooperation with Israel, the toughness of  Baku's positions, and, accordingly, the challenges to Iran's national  security. And in light of the concentration of Turkish and Israeli  military in the immediate vicinity of Iran, Tehran, in the opinion of  an orientalist, has no choice but to strengthen its army and build up  its military presence at the borders with Azerbaijan.

In the opinion of Nadein-Raevsky, in the perspective of the  development of the regional situation, a lot depends on the  approaches and decisions of small countries, especially those  involved in the actively discussed 3 + 3 format, as well as the  position of the United States regarding this, regional format  proposed by Turkey. In any case, the orientalist is not inclined to  predict a particular aggravation of the situation in the region.  However, the most complex transformations, chaotic confrontation for  the redistribution of zones of influence in the region, according to  his forecasts, will continue.

"Given the contradiction in the status quo of the 44-day war in the  South Caucasus to the interests of Iran, tensions on its borders are  likely to remain. There is no doubt that the current geopolitical  alignment in the region is extremely problematic for Tehran. Iranian  diplomacy will try to overcome it by politics within the framework of  the nuclear deal, special relations with the Russian Federation and  inviting new Asian countries to the region, "the orientalist  predicts.