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 Thursday, July 29 2021 12:16
David Stepanyan

Forecast: as soon as Azerbaijan gains concessions from Armenia, it  will renew pressure to achieve new ones

Forecast: as soon as Azerbaijan gains concessions from Armenia, it  will renew pressure to achieve new ones

ArmInfo.The shots and killings at the border are a continuation of the low-intensity conflict that has existed since the mid-2000s. Nothing new is happening, the border  with Azerbaijan has simply changed, which now passes in Gegharkunik  instead of Artsakh. Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander  Iskandaryan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"As for the recent Azeri attacks on Armenia, all these shelling and  killings are an inseparable part of the strategy of pressure on  Yerevan.  Aliyev's constant statements on the "settlement of the  Karabakh conflict" are elements of the same strategy, just as, the  captive Armenians held by Azerbaijan, although Armenia believes that  the status of Artsakh should be determined during the negotiations,   " he said.

According to the political scientist's forecasts, the latest attacks  on Gegharkunik will not lead to a large- scale war; nevertheless, a  low-intensity conflict can be maintained, since this is part of  Baku's strategy. The goal of this strategy, according to Iskandaryan,  is to open a transport corridor for Azerbaijan through the territory  of Armenia to Nakhchivan and Turkey, which will be controlled by  non-Armenians. And of course, the signing of a peace treaty with  conditions acceptable to Baku, which Aliyev will be able to present  to the public as recognition of the borders of Azerbaijan by Armenia,  and the de facto inclusion of Artsakh into Azerbaijan.

Commenting on the demands of Baku on the transfer of the so-called  enclave villages, Iskandaryan noted that Azerbaijan is still asking  for more in order to get less. However, this does not mean at all  that if Yerevan concedes in something, than the turn of the enclaves  will not come soon either. And to achieve all these goals, Aliyev  presses on Armenia with shots, murders, prisoners of war, and  diplomacy through third countries, mainly through Russia.

"The main problem in all this for Armenia is the absence of any  prerequisites for ending this whole situation. It is not rational to  expect that the Azerbaijanis, having received something, will calm  down and stop shooting and killing. In the foreseeable future,  Azerbaijan has no motivation to end the pressure, maintaining a  nervous situation at the border. And as soon as Azerbaijan gains  concessions from Armenia, it will continue pressure to achieve new  ones, "the political scientist summed up.

On the morning of July 28, Azerbaijan began another shelling,  assassinations and an offensive on the Armenian military positions  and villages. After Syunik, Ararat and Tavush, the Gegharkunik region  of our country once again became the target of enemy aggression. The  Azerbaijani military conducted targeted shelling of the villages of  Kut and Verin Shorzha. Three Armenian soldiers became the next  victims of another Azerbaijani aggression. The Armenian army,  according to the Ministry of Defense, took all the necessary actions  in response to protect the country's borders and as of 09:20 am the  enemy was thrown back to its original positions.

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