MPG cannot explain the significant vote gap in its poll for "Civil  Contract" before and after the elections

ArmInfo.MPG consulting company (exclusive representative of the International GALLUP Association in Armenia) conducted the first poll after the early parliamentary  elections in Armenia. As head of the consulting company Aram  Navasardyan noted during the press conference, the poll was named  after the American illusionist, actor Harry Houdini, who became  famous for exposing charlatans and complex tricks with escapes and  releases.

Despite the fact that the majority of respondents believe that the  elections were held transparently, fairly, reflecting the will of the  people (38.7% - <definitely yes>, 20.1% - <rather yes than no>, 18.8%  - <rather no, than yes>, 17.9% - <definitely not> and 4.5% - found it  difficult to answer), the results of today's poll showed an  incomparable difference in the votes registered before the elections,  according to the results of the CEC, and in the post-election period.

<We have no explanation for this. For other indicators, including  those related to the position of citizens in the issue of  participation in voting, we have approximate indicators. In  particular, according to the data of the last poll conducted before  the elections (June 18, Ed. note), 52.1% of respondents expressed  their readiness to take part in the voting, and in fact, according to  the CEC, about 49% of citizens expressed their will. 

However, we cannot explain the significant difference in the votes  cast for the ruling Civil Contract party before the elections and in  the post-election period, "he said. Presenting the survey data,  Navasardyan noted that on June 18, 25.2% of respondents were ready to  vote for the Civil Contract (CC). According to the CEC, 53.91% of  citizens supported the ruling party, and after the elections,  according to the "Houdini" poll, 35.8% of those polled noted that  they had voted for the Civil Contract.

At the same time, 28.7% were ready to vote for the "Armenia" bloc the  day before the elections. According to the CEC, Robert Kocharian's  bloc gained 21.09% of the vote, and in the post-election period,  24.2% of citizens voted for "Armenia".

Before the elections, 10.8% of the respondents wanted to support the  " I Have Honor" bloc. In fact, 5.22% of citizens voted for the latter  in the elections, and after the elections 6.8% of respondents noted  that they expressed support for this bloc.  

For the remaining political forces of Armenia, according to the  latest poll, they voted as follows: 4.4% - the Prosperous Armenia  party, 3.2% - the Republic party, 2.4% - the Armenian National  Congress, 2.1% - Lusavor Hayastan (Bright Armenia)>, 1.6% - Bloc of  Democrats Shirinyan / Babajanyan 1.5% - National Democratic Pole,  1.4% - National Conservative Movement 5165, 11.7% of respondents -  refused to answer.  

According to the study, more than 7 days before the elections, 26.2%  of the respondents decided which political force they would support  in the parliamentary elections on June 20, within 5-7 days - 19.8%,  in 3- 4 days - 13.7%, in 2 days 17.2%, in 1 day - 14.3%, and on the  day of elections 7.6% of citizens decided.  It should be noted that the survey was conducted through telephone  calls to residents of Armenia in the period from June 23 to June 26  this year, the sample size was 1112, the sampling error is +/- 3%.   Since 2003, MPG, working in the market of sociological and marketing  research, has implemented more than 800 projects of various sizes.