ArmInfo.Based on my detailed analysis of the situation around Artsakh, and based on assessments of the historical prerequisites for last year's war, we have to state that it is geopolitics that gives uncertainty to the prospects for the second stage of the 44-day war. Historical sociologist, professor of the New York University at Abu Dhabi, Georgi M. Derluguian expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"It seems that the last year's armed confrontation in Artsakh has distinct geopolitical contours, if you like, a component. This allows us to assess last year's events over 44 days as a kind of mini, but world war. And based on this, we can assume that only the first part of this very real world war took place in the fall of last year. And the geopolitical situation resulting from this turned out to be so complicated that we can only guess whether the second stage will follow and how soon it can happen, "he stressed. According to the professor, despite the fact that the tactical details of the recent second Karabakh war are still a matter of conjecture for the expert community as a whole, it seems that Turkish generals were in charge of the fighting in the Azerbaijani army. And at the moment when the fall of Shushi threatened the complete elimination of the Armenian forces in Artsakh, Russian President Putin entered the game. The latter actually forced Aliyev to stop the offensive, forcing Pashinyan to sign a surrender. However, how long the situation formed as a result of such coercion can last, in which Armenia and Artsakh are connected only by a corridor 5 kilometers wide, apart from a question mark, does not cause any other associations.
This current situation around Artsakh, according to Derluguian, is largely derived from the inaccurate and not calculated until the end of the implementation of the Eurasian policy. Recalling that in 1991 Moscow could only indulge in dreams of the return of geopolitical influence in the context of the US hegemony in the current world order, the professor emphasized that the new capitalist Russia with its sphere of influence was to be formed precisely in these conditions.
The ideal way out of the situation, in Derluguian 's opinion, could be the so-called controlled conflict between Russia and the United States, including through the creation of a buffer space for China in the center of Eurasia. Monopolarity could have turned out to be an impeccable option, but everything was spoiled by the sloppy implementation of Eurasian geopolitics. As a result, today the world is faced with the consequences of such inaccuracy in Chechnya, Ukraine, and now in Belarus and Artsakh. The essence of what is happening, in his opinion, rests on the reform of the Russian army after the war on 08/08/08, the results of which the same world clearly saw in 2014 in the form of the lightning return of Crimea and Sevastopol "to their native harbor."
"Than more- more. After reunification with Crimea, Russia did not allow the victory of the Islamists in Syria. But here Putin already had to face Erdogan, the collector of Ottoman lands. And it was the incessant Turkish attempts to achieve a military-political revenge on the lands that were once part of the Ottoman Empire that again brought Nagorno-Karabakh, that had remained dormant in the shadow of Russia, from the backyard to the forefront of the international agenda. And it is absolutely impossible to say today how all this will end tomorrow," Derluguian summed up.