ArmInfo.The processes around Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia's influence on them were reflected in the report of the US Department of Defense Intelligence Agency on global threats in 2021. The document has been prepared for hearings in the Senate and published on the website of the Senate Armed Forces Committee.
The report focuses on the threats posed by China and Russia to the United States and its allies.
The document note, that the world is going through an era of global strategic competition "in which the main rivals of the United States China and Russia develop the means to challenge the military superiority of the United States. In addition to military measures, we are talking about actions in the" gray zone "such as the use of proxy troops and mercenaries, cyberattacks, manipulation of information, undermining the economic power of rivals, and so on.
The Russian armed forces are named in the document as a potential threat to the very existence of the United States, as well as a tool to support influence in countries along the perimeter of Russian borders, with which Moscow can challenge Washington's global leadership.
The report details the modernization of nuclear and non-nuclear Russian forces, and said that Russia will significantly increase its nuclear arsenal in the coming years through non-strategic means.
The section on conflicts notes that the Kremlin's need to remain the preponderant security provider in what it calls the "near abroad" has probably grown as Moscow's economic hold over the region becomes more precarious in the face of external actors with greater financial resources, such as China.
At the same time, it is stated: < However, Georgian, Ukrainian, and Azerbaijani security cooperation with NATO partners and other external backers reflects an increasingly challenging environment for Russia to exert security dominance.>
The report notes that, Moscow's decisions to avoid direct intervention in the Nagorno- Karabakh war and a limited response to the mass protests in 17 Belarus, suggest the Kremlin is evolving its tactics for maintaining control in the former Soviet space in response to increased attempts by outside parties such as China, the West and Turkey to gain influence in the region.
"The Russian-brokered ceasefire brought an end to the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh, while also strengthening Russia's military and economic influence in the region. There are now troops on the ground in all three countries in the South Caucasus and Russia is likely to benefit from and continue to exert influence through the opening of transportation and communication ties between Armenia and Azerbaijan."
At the same time, it is stated:
In general, summing up the results of the interaction between Moscow and Washington, the authors of the report come to the conclusion that at the moment Russia is hardly interested in a direct clash with the United States, but it will not give up its confrontation with the West.