Arminfo.info




 Friday, April 30 2021 11:57
David Stepanyan

Forecast: A new Putin-Erdogan deal on the South Caucasus and Ukraine  is by no means out of the question

 Forecast: A new Putin-Erdogan deal on the South Caucasus and Ukraine  is by no means out of the question

ArmInfo. Apparently, 2021 will be no less difficult for our region than 2020. Several interrelated factors provide the basis for this statement. A similar opinion was  expressed to  ArmInfo by the professor of the Georgian Technical  University, Doctor of International Relations, conflictologist Amiran  Khevtsuriani.

"We see that in the situation around Ukraine, Russian President  Vladimir Putin quite deliberately took a time-out. A few days  earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the construction  of the Nord Stream 2 will definitely be completed by the summer.   Meanwhile, thanks to the pipeline, Ukraine is losing the status of an  energy corridor - Russian gas will be 100% transported to Europe via  the new route. In this light, the Kremlin is not interested in  escalating the situation in Ukraine. At least for now," he said.  At  the same time, according to Khevtsuriani, the situation around  Ukraine, due to a number of internal Russian and internal Ukrainian  factors, remains alarming. In this light, he does not rule out the  unleashing of large-scale hostilities in the south-east of the  country by the end of summer and early autumn. According to his  forecasts, in the event of such a development, the West will  immediately "express indignation", but as always will limit itself to  sanctions. And the "Old Europe" will start running with papers, and  it is absolutely possible that it will blame the Ukrainian government  for the aggravation of the situation, as it was in the case of  Georgia in 2008.

And here, according to the conflictologist, the Turkish factor comes  to the fore again. And even more precisely, the need to neutralize  Turkey, which does not hide its sympathy for Ukraine and periodically  supplies weapons to Kiev. According to Khevtsuriani, such  neutralization without a "piece of chocolate" is unthinkable. And  such a" piece of chocolate " may once again be Russia's strategic  ally Armenia. Thus, according to his estimates, it is possible that  Putin may offer Erdogan another opportunity for free action in the  South Caucasus in exchange for firm neutrality in the Ukrainian  issue.

"The mention of the need to unblock communications in the trilateral  statement on Karabakh signed on November 9 last year gives Baku the  opportunity to demand the so-called Zangezur corridor, through which  Azerbaijan seeks to get a connection with the Nakhchivan Autonomous  Republic. The latter is categorically unacceptable for Armenia.   Accordingly, Yerevan's disobedience may lead to the launch of a new  military campaign in the South Caucasus, as Ilham Aliyev has  repeatedly hinted. And the recent recognition by US President Biden  of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire is an additional  argument motivating Ankara to conclude another deal with Moscow.   Especially if the latter pays for it with a "piece of chocolate", -  the conflictologist summed up.


News
Prosecutor General`s Office of Armenia, within the framework of law  on Prosecutor General`s Office of Armenia, within the framework of law  on "On Confiscation of Property of Illegal Origin", examines assets  of 270 persons
Pashinyan at joint meeting of CSTO and SCO called for closer  cooperation at level of law enforcement agencies and special servicesPashinyan at joint meeting of CSTO and SCO called for closer  cooperation at level of law enforcement agencies and special services
RA Ombudsman presented results of collection of facts in SyunikRA Ombudsman presented results of collection of facts in Syunik
Armenia is interested in the entire line of ORSIS weapons: Chief  DesignerArmenia is interested in the entire line of ORSIS weapons: Chief  Designer
Member of NA: Baku`s threat to file a counterclaim against Armenia at  the UN International Court of Justice does not fit into the framework  of international law: Member of NA: Baku`s threat to file a counterclaim against Armenia at  the UN International Court of Justice does not fit into the framework  of international law: 
"Hayastan" faction accuses the government of high treason
Politician: The current Constitution forces Pashinyan to transform  into a dictatorPolitician: The current Constitution forces Pashinyan to transform  into a dictator
26 people die from coronavirus in Armenia in 24 hours26 people die from coronavirus in Armenia in 24 hours
Expert: The situation near Vorotan is a reflection of Armenia`s lack  of a transport strategyExpert: The situation near Vorotan is a reflection of Armenia`s lack  of a transport strategy
"Hayastan" bloc plans actions to neutralize threats to statehood and  prevent the "turkification" of Armenia
Armenia institutes proceedings against Azerbaijan before the UN  International Court of Justice accusing it in racial discriminationArmenia institutes proceedings against Azerbaijan before the UN  International Court of Justice accusing it in racial discrimination
Foreign Ministers of Armenia and India agreed to start meaningful  discussions on cooperation on specific programsForeign Ministers of Armenia and India agreed to start meaningful  discussions on cooperation on specific programs
Pashinyan and Raisi discussed regional processes and uninterrupted  organization of cargo transportation between RA and IRIPashinyan and Raisi discussed regional processes and uninterrupted  organization of cargo transportation between RA and IRI
Moscow communicated its position to Baku on joint exercises of  Azerbaijan and Turkey in CaspianMoscow communicated its position to Baku on joint exercises of  Azerbaijan and Turkey in Caspian
Zakharova: Developments on Goris-Kapan highway require the earliest  start of the delimitation-demarcation process of the  Armenian-Azerbaijani borderZakharova: Developments on Goris-Kapan highway require the earliest  start of the delimitation-demarcation process of the  Armenian-Azerbaijani border
NA Speaker: Armenia-USA Friendship Group to be formed in RA  ParliamentNA Speaker: Armenia-USA Friendship Group to be formed in RA  Parliament
Papikyan on situation on Goris-Kapan highway: The risks were not  taken into account, as Russian border guards are operating therePapikyan on situation on Goris-Kapan highway: The risks were not  taken into account, as Russian border guards are operating there
NA Speaker and IRI Ambassador discussed situation on Goris-Kapan  inter-state roadNA Speaker and IRI Ambassador discussed situation on Goris-Kapan  inter-state road
Government will provide additional funding to Ministry of HealthGovernment will provide additional funding to Ministry of Health
Caroline Cox expressed hope for practical support of international  community in repatriating Armenian captivesCaroline Cox expressed hope for practical support of international  community in repatriating Armenian captives
Ambassador of Netherlands reaffirmed readiness to assist activities  of OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs in regionAmbassador of Netherlands reaffirmed readiness to assist activities  of OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs in region
Deputy head of Ararat region was appointed head of Criminal Executive  Service, and regional governor of Ararat region reversed his decision about resigningDeputy head of Ararat region was appointed head of Criminal Executive  Service, and regional governor of Ararat region reversed his decision about resigning
Pashinyan: The potential of CSTO Collective Forces needs to be  modernized, supplemented with unmanned formationsPashinyan: The potential of CSTO Collective Forces needs to be  modernized, supplemented with unmanned formations
Forecast: Remedial secession is quite capable of giving Baku more  pliabilityForecast: Remedial secession is quite capable of giving Baku more  pliability
Expert: The obscurity of the authorities` strategy leaves no room for  predicting its goalsExpert: The obscurity of the authorities` strategy leaves no room for  predicting its goals
Stanislav Zas: The next session of the CSC will be held at the end of  2022 in YerevanStanislav Zas: The next session of the CSC will be held at the end of  2022 in Yerevan
 Head of the SIS of Armenia headed the unified body for the detection  and investigation of corruption crimes Head of the SIS of Armenia headed the unified body for the detection  and investigation of corruption crimes
Over 700 coronavirus cases registered in Armenia for the second day  in a rowOver 700 coronavirus cases registered in Armenia for the second day  in a row
Nikol Pashinyan and Emomali Rahmon discussed the prospects for  Armenian-Tajik relationsNikol Pashinyan and Emomali Rahmon discussed the prospects for  Armenian-Tajik relations
Azerbaijani police detained two Iranian drivers, and Armenia returns  those arrested to IranAzerbaijani police detained two Iranian drivers, and Armenia returns  those arrested to Iran
Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces received newly appointed  US military attache in ArmeniaChief of General Staff of the Armed Forces received newly appointed  US military attache in Armenia
Armen Grigoryan: Armenia is ready to start the process of demarcation  and delimitation of the Armenian- Azerbaijani border as soon as  possibleArmen Grigoryan: Armenia is ready to start the process of demarcation  and delimitation of the Armenian- Azerbaijani border as soon as  possible
Pashinyan on stopping Iranian goods: this was done, possibly in  response to refusal to provide a corridor through the territory of  ArmeniaPashinyan on stopping Iranian goods: this was done, possibly in  response to refusal to provide a corridor through the territory of  Armenia
US Ambassador on situation on Goris-Kapan road: There is a need for a  comprehensive settlementUS Ambassador on situation on Goris-Kapan road: There is a need for a  comprehensive settlement
Drip irrigation. 5 questions and answers with Converse BankDrip irrigation. 5 questions and answers with Converse Bank
Armenia and Russia discussed possibilities of strengthening bilateral  relations in cultural, scientific and educational sectorsArmenia and Russia discussed possibilities of strengthening bilateral  relations in cultural, scientific and educational sectors
RA NA Speaker: Reorganization of the Armenia-India parliamentary  friendship group will be of great importance in expanding  inter-parliamentary cooperationRA NA Speaker: Reorganization of the Armenia-India parliamentary  friendship group will be of great importance in expanding  inter-parliamentary cooperation
Robert Kocharian instructed the members of the Robert Kocharian instructed the members of the "Hayastan" bloc to  draw public attention to the problems
Criminal Court of Appeal in Yerevan postpones hearings in the case of  Kocharyan and others for a monthCriminal Court of Appeal in Yerevan postpones hearings in the case of  Kocharyan and others for a month
US Ambassador to Armenia: We don`t consider the status of Nagorno  Karabakh as having been resolved - it remanins on the agenda of the  Minsk GroupUS Ambassador to Armenia: We don`t consider the status of Nagorno  Karabakh as having been resolved - it remanins on the agenda of the  Minsk Group
US Deputy Ambassador: Syunik region is a priority in terms of  Embassy`s activatesUS Deputy Ambassador: Syunik region is a priority in terms of  Embassy`s activates
Politician: Presidential system is most relevant for ArmeniaPolitician: Presidential system is most relevant for Armenia
22 people died from coronavirus in Armenia in 24 hours22 people died from coronavirus in Armenia in 24 hours
Ani Ispiryan was appointed Deputy Minister of Economy of Armenia.Ani Ispiryan was appointed Deputy Minister of Economy of Armenia.
Deputy head of the Kentron administrative district of Yerevan accused  of abuse of office for beating his subordinateDeputy head of the Kentron administrative district of Yerevan accused  of abuse of office for beating his subordinate
Heads of foreign affairs agencies of Turkmenistan and the FRG discussed the issues of bilateral collaborationHeads of foreign affairs agencies of Turkmenistan and the FRG discussed the issues of bilateral collaboration
Slovakia values Armenia`s efforts to bring stability and peace to the  region: KorczakSlovakia values Armenia`s efforts to bring stability and peace to the  region: Korczak
Solidarity in action! Macron made a note in ArmenianSolidarity in action! Macron made a note in Armenian
A closed session on the situation on the Goris-Kapan road to be held  at the National Assembly of ArmeniaA closed session on the situation on the Goris-Kapan road to be held  at the National Assembly of Armenia
Expert: Statements from Yerevan and Ankara suggest the existence of  non-public processesExpert: Statements from Yerevan and Ankara suggest the existence of  non-public processes
Analyst: Except for Armenia, everyone in the region is preparing for  warAnalyst: Except for Armenia, everyone in the region is preparing for  war
657 cases of coronavirus infection confirmed in Armenia in 24 hours657 cases of coronavirus infection confirmed in Armenia in 24 hours
Defense Ministry: A reserve sergeant was killed at one of the combat  posts of ArmeniaDefense Ministry: A reserve sergeant was killed at one of the combat  posts of Armenia
Pashinyan and Stephane Visconti discussed ways to resolve the  Nagorno-Karabakh conflictPashinyan and Stephane Visconti discussed ways to resolve the  Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Experience of military operations in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh is  used in Experience of military operations in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh is  used in "West-2021" exercises
Armen Sarkissian to Biden: Armenia strongly condemns all types of  terrorismArmen Sarkissian to Biden: Armenia strongly condemns all types of  terrorism
Armenian Foreign Minister and French Co-Chair indicated need to  resume peace process on Karabakh under auspices of OSCE Minsk GroupArmenian Foreign Minister and French Co-Chair indicated need to  resume peace process on Karabakh under auspices of OSCE Minsk Group
Tehran reacted to the situation with Iranian heavy trucks on  Goris-Kapan roadTehran reacted to the situation with Iranian heavy trucks on  Goris-Kapan road
"Become a shareholder": ACBA Bank issued its first 500.000 shares  with a total volume of 7.5 billion drams
President Armen Sarkissian appointed new ambassadors to Greece,  Belarus and QatarPresident Armen Sarkissian appointed new ambassadors to Greece,  Belarus and Qatar
Read more



Commented