ArmInfo. Apparently, 2021 will be no less difficult for our region than 2020. Several interrelated factors provide the basis for this statement. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by the professor of the Georgian Technical University, Doctor of International Relations, conflictologist Amiran Khevtsuriani.
"We see that in the situation around Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin quite deliberately took a time-out. A few days earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the construction of the Nord Stream 2 will definitely be completed by the summer. Meanwhile, thanks to the pipeline, Ukraine is losing the status of an energy corridor - Russian gas will be 100% transported to Europe via the new route. In this light, the Kremlin is not interested in escalating the situation in Ukraine. At least for now," he said. At the same time, according to Khevtsuriani, the situation around Ukraine, due to a number of internal Russian and internal Ukrainian factors, remains alarming. In this light, he does not rule out the unleashing of large-scale hostilities in the south-east of the country by the end of summer and early autumn. According to his forecasts, in the event of such a development, the West will immediately "express indignation", but as always will limit itself to sanctions. And the "Old Europe" will start running with papers, and it is absolutely possible that it will blame the Ukrainian government for the aggravation of the situation, as it was in the case of Georgia in 2008.
And here, according to the conflictologist, the Turkish factor comes to the fore again. And even more precisely, the need to neutralize Turkey, which does not hide its sympathy for Ukraine and periodically supplies weapons to Kiev. According to Khevtsuriani, such neutralization without a "piece of chocolate" is unthinkable. And such a" piece of chocolate " may once again be Russia's strategic ally Armenia. Thus, according to his estimates, it is possible that Putin may offer Erdogan another opportunity for free action in the South Caucasus in exchange for firm neutrality in the Ukrainian issue.
"The mention of the need to unblock communications in the trilateral statement on Karabakh signed on November 9 last year gives Baku the opportunity to demand the so-called Zangezur corridor, through which Azerbaijan seeks to get a connection with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The latter is categorically unacceptable for Armenia. Accordingly, Yerevan's disobedience may lead to the launch of a new military campaign in the South Caucasus, as Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly hinted. And the recent recognition by US President Biden of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire is an additional argument motivating Ankara to conclude another deal with Moscow. Especially if the latter pays for it with a "piece of chocolate", - the conflictologist summed up.