ArmInfo.I do not see any prospects for the aggravation of the military phase of the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by a member of the expert council of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Chief Researcher at Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute Alexey Malashenko.
"The parties to the conflict after the last heavy war are in a weakened state. Azerbaijan has to restore and equip the conquered territories, which is impossible in a new war. There is also an interest in Baku in unblocking communications. Armenia and Artsakh remain interested in determining the status of Artsakh," he said.
According to the expert's forecasts, discussions in the direction of determining the status of Artsakh will begin very soon, however, subsequently they will continue for an indefinite period with uncertain prospects. In this sense, Malashenko expects activity in the processes around Artsakh, which, at the same time, will not be crowned with special shifts in the current status quo.
According to Malashenko, on the Artsakh issue, Russia and the United States will continue cooperation from the point at which the negotiation process was interrupted.
The war-decided clause concerning territories will be an exception. All other issues of the conflict have not been resolved and are subject to resolution, including the most important issue of status. In this light, the expert predicts the continuation of the existence and work of the OSCE Minsk Group format.
"I am convinced that in this joint work Moscow will work with the new US administration very carefully, however, without undue stress. The latter is considered by Russia's military presence in Artsakh and Azerbaijan. Accordingly, strong positions and the ability to participate and control the discussions from these positions. France in turn will give the Minsk Group a new breath, "he said.
In this light, Malashenko expects long-term discussions around the status of Artsakh. According to him, such prospects are due to the absence of easy and understandable solutions to this issue. Accordingly, a heated struggle will continue around the settlement process. At the same time, the pending negotiations, according to his forecasts, , will not violate the existing status quo around Artsakh, which proceeds from the interests of Moscow.