Forecast: There will be no new war, but long-lasting negotiations

ArmInfo.I do not see any prospects for the aggravation of the military phase of the conflict around Nagorno-Karabakh. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo  by a member of the expert council of the Carnegie Moscow Center,  Chief Researcher at  Dialogue of Civilizations Research Institute  Alexey Malashenko.

"The parties to the conflict after the last heavy war are in a  weakened state. Azerbaijan has to restore and equip the conquered  territories, which is impossible in a new war. There is also an  interest in Baku in unblocking communications. Armenia and Artsakh  remain interested in determining the status of Artsakh," he said.

According to the expert's forecasts, discussions in the direction of  determining the status of Artsakh will begin very soon, however,  subsequently they will continue for an indefinite period with  uncertain prospects. In this sense, Malashenko expects activity in  the processes around Artsakh, which, at the same time, will not be  crowned with special shifts in the current status quo.

According to Malashenko, on the Artsakh issue, Russia and the United  States will continue cooperation from the point at which the  negotiation process was interrupted.

The war-decided clause concerning territories will be an exception.  All other issues of the conflict have not been resolved and are  subject to resolution, including the most important issue of status.  In this light, the expert predicts the continuation of the existence  and work of the OSCE Minsk Group format.

"I am convinced that in this joint work Moscow will work with the new  US administration very carefully, however, without undue stress. The  latter is considered by Russia's military presence in Artsakh and  Azerbaijan. Accordingly, strong positions and the ability to  participate and control the discussions from these positions. France  in turn will give the Minsk Group a new breath, "he said.

In this light, Malashenko expects long-term discussions around the  status of Artsakh. According to him, such prospects are due to the  absence of easy and understandable solutions to this issue.  Accordingly, a heated struggle will continue around the settlement  process. At the same time, the pending negotiations, according to his  forecasts, , will not violate the existing status quo around Artsakh,  which proceeds from the interests of Moscow.