Avigdor Eskin: The stalemate situation, observed today, can lead to  the activation of the Russian factor in the settlement

ArmInfo.The possibility of negotiations under the auspices of Russia and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh have reappeared on the agenda today. However, it is doubtful whether the leaders of the parties will be willing to expand the role of Russia.

It can be assumed that the leadership of Karabakh will  treat this scenario favorably. The famous Israeli political scientist  and public figure Avigdor Eskin expressed this opinion in an  interview with ArmInfo correspondent.

According to him, this assumption is supported by the active  participation in the defense of former commanders who participated in  battles in the nineties and then went into politics, but did not lose  their military skills. These people have already discussed more than  once the possibility of expanding the Russian presence with the  possibility of maintaining an independent status. The attitude of  Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to such development is ambiguous. If  not himself, then many in his entourage would like to see Armenia  more independent from Russia, and Karabakh (within certain borders) a  part of Armenia, and not an independent republic.

Nevertheless, these days the head of the Armenian government is  constantly in touch with Moscow and twice talked with President  Putin. At the same time, President Ilham Aliyev refrains from direct  talks with the Russian President and is clearly oriented more towards  Turkey and its President Erdogan. And this happens despite many years  of good personal relations between Aliyev and Putin.

According to Eskin, in such a complex situation, it is important to  clarify how serious Ankara's plans are in intensified promotion of  raising its status as a participant in negotiations between the  belligerent parties.  Erdogan's possible aspiration to obtain equal  status with Moscow can hardly be acceptable for Armenia with Karabakh  and for Russia. However, military actions have their own dynamics,  and the stalemate, as seen today, may lead to the activation of the  Russian factor in the settlement. This comes against the backdrop of  the French ceasefire initiative. However, French leader Macron has  little experience in Transcaucasian affairs. And geographical  remoteness does not contribute to the possibility of its success.  To  this we can add Baku's skepticism to his candidacy due to the warm  ties with the Armenian Diaspora.

To recall, the day before, the international press started talking  about the possibility of bringing Russian peacekeepers into Karabakh  after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview  with Al Jazeera TV that the issue of bringing Russian peacekeepers  into Nagorno Karabakh could be discussed within the framework of the  OSCE Minsk Group. Answering a journalist's question whether he would  like to see Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan said  in particular: "Look, such issues can be discussed in a broader  context within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group." At the same  time, the press secretary of Vladimir Putin Dmitry Peskov told RBC  that Russia can send its peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh only with  the consent of Azerbaijan and Armenia. "Peacekeepers can enter only  with the consent of both sides," said Peskov. In turn, Kazbek  Taisayev, deputy chairman of the State Duma committee for CIS  affairs, told RIA Novosti that the issue of the presence of Russian  peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh is ripe, there is no doubt that it  will be comprehensively studied. The deputy recalled that within the  framework of the CSTO, the Russian Federation and Armenia have  absolutely clear obligations to each other.