Analyst: The future of the settlement depends on the dynamics of the  fighting 

ArmInfo. The future of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict depends on the dynamics of the current hostilities. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo  by Senior Research Fellow of the Institute of International Studies  at MGIMO, editor-in- chief of International Analytics magazine Sergey  Markedonov.

"At the same time, in any case, a compromise between the belligerents  remains the only acceptable way to resolve the conflict. In the first  days of hostilities, there were no major changes in the positions of  the sides.  And hence the danger of an exhausting trench warfare  appears. Neither side is ready for the last perspective, '' he  stressed.

In this light, the analyst in the near future forecasts more active  actions of the OSCE Minsk Group in the direction of resolving the  situation. In his opinion, it is necessary to make the prospect of  continuing hostilities less advantageous than the prospect of  discussing the possibilities of reconciliation at the negotiating  table.

According to Markedonov, the current situation around Karabakh is  complicated by not the most excellent relations between the OSCE  Minsk Group co-chairing countries: Russia, the United States and  France. At the same time, it is Karabakh that continues to remain the  only region in the post-Soviet space around which there is a  consensus between Russia and the West in the form of an exclusively  peaceful resolution of the conflict.

We are talking about a settlement based on the updated Madrid  principles, for which each of the mediating countries, in his  opinion, has its own motivation. For example, for Russia, the  conflict poses a potential threat from the south, plus the danger of  interethnic clashes, Azerbaijanis and Armenians living in the Russian  Federation. Another threat, according to Markedonov, is the prospect  of different reactions of the CSTO member states in the event of a  deepening escalation.  

"The Americans do not need a conflict, especially its growth, given  that the hostilities are taking place in kilometers from the  Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. In addition, the United States and  France are tired of Turkey's activity in the conflict over Karabakh.  Syria, Libya and Cyprus. Against this background, French President  Emmanuel Macron is trying to play the role of a European leader  instead of Germany. In this light, playing the role of a peacemaker  in Karabakh is a very good chance for him, "Markedonov summed up.  

On September 30, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters in  Riga that France does not accept Turkey's statements on the conquest  of Artsakh. "France is still very concerned about Turkey's latest  calls for Azerbaijan's conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh. We will not  allow this. I say to Armenia and the Armenians - France will play its  role. I am preparing to discuss this with Russian and American  colleagues Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump before introducing the  situation in the European Council, " Macron said.