ArmInfo. The future of the settlement of the Karabakh conflict depends on the dynamics of the current hostilities. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Senior Research Fellow of the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO, editor-in- chief of International Analytics magazine Sergey Markedonov.
"At the same time, in any case, a compromise between the belligerents remains the only acceptable way to resolve the conflict. In the first days of hostilities, there were no major changes in the positions of the sides. And hence the danger of an exhausting trench warfare appears. Neither side is ready for the last perspective, '' he stressed.
In this light, the analyst in the near future forecasts more active actions of the OSCE Minsk Group in the direction of resolving the situation. In his opinion, it is necessary to make the prospect of continuing hostilities less advantageous than the prospect of discussing the possibilities of reconciliation at the negotiating table.
According to Markedonov, the current situation around Karabakh is complicated by not the most excellent relations between the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries: Russia, the United States and France. At the same time, it is Karabakh that continues to remain the only region in the post-Soviet space around which there is a consensus between Russia and the West in the form of an exclusively peaceful resolution of the conflict.
We are talking about a settlement based on the updated Madrid principles, for which each of the mediating countries, in his opinion, has its own motivation. For example, for Russia, the conflict poses a potential threat from the south, plus the danger of interethnic clashes, Azerbaijanis and Armenians living in the Russian Federation. Another threat, according to Markedonov, is the prospect of different reactions of the CSTO member states in the event of a deepening escalation.
"The Americans do not need a conflict, especially its growth, given that the hostilities are taking place in kilometers from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. In addition, the United States and France are tired of Turkey's activity in the conflict over Karabakh. Syria, Libya and Cyprus. Against this background, French President Emmanuel Macron is trying to play the role of a European leader instead of Germany. In this light, playing the role of a peacemaker in Karabakh is a very good chance for him, "Markedonov summed up.
On September 30, French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters in Riga that France does not accept Turkey's statements on the conquest of Artsakh. "France is still very concerned about Turkey's latest calls for Azerbaijan's conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh. We will not allow this. I say to Armenia and the Armenians - France will play its role. I am preparing to discuss this with Russian and American colleagues Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump before introducing the situation in the European Council, " Macron said.