Forecast: Russia cannot, should not and will not interfere in the  situation in Belarus

ArmInfo. The Russian factor in the latest events in Belarus is over estimated,Russian analyst Vadim Dubnov expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

"At the same time, Lukashenko's visit to Putin, his appeal to Russia,  in my opinion, is an exceptionally competent and quite logical step.  Thus, he is trying to impart a certain geopolitical overtone to the  internal political events in Belarus. At the moment, Belarusians are  demanding exclusively his resignation, avoiding political, especially  geopolitical, accents, "he stressed.

Meanwhile, if Lukashenko manages to change the content of slogans and  banners on the streets of Minsk, thereby, according to the analyst,  he will be able to win over the anti-Western, pro-Russian anti-Maidan  forces to his side. According to Dubnov, the Belarusian president is  now implementing this very line.  According to his forecasts, this  will slightly improve his position, however, it will not have a  fundamental impact on his political fate.

Further actions of Moscow towards Belarus, according to Dubnov, are  dictated by political logic. Russia cannot, should not and will not  interfere in the situation, since it is not 2014, and Belarus is not  Crimea, and not only politically, but also geographically. According  to him, Crimea was in a state of uncertainty between the West and  Russia. Meanwhile, Belarus shares borders with three NATO countries,  Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which leads to great risks in  case of interference.

"However, there is a scenario, that is far from being logical. And we  have no right to neglect such a scenario. Our elite has a sufficient  number of people mistakenly called madmen. In reality, these people  are far from madness, they have their own logic, their dividends, and  therefore are not against the scenario of escalation of the  situation. In any case, I think the first, logical scenario is more  likely, "he said.

Commenting on the likelihood of exporting the Belarusian scenario to  Russia, which President Lukashenko has been talking about all the  last weeks, Dubnov assessed such forecasts as exaggerated. "I do not  think that the Belarusian scenario will somehow affect the situation  in Russia. Especially against the background of how in Khabarovsk  people opposing the government are simultaneously electing a governor  from United Russia. Thus, the Russian logic is somewhat different  from the Belarusian one and does not inspire much optimism, "Dubnov  concluded.