View from Moscow: Turkey`s behavior towards Armenia is predetermined  by geopolitics

ArmInfo. Turkey's behavior towards Armenia is predetermined by geopolitics, not the desires of some people in Ankara or Baku. A similar opinion was expressed to  ArmInfo by Vladimir Evseev, head of the department for Eurasian  integration and development of the SCO of the Institute of CIS  countries.

"It is clear that in the Armenian-Azerbaijani  confrontation, Ankara acts from the position of a provocateur. I  don't think that without Turkish support Azerbaijan would have  decided on the July provocation on the border with Armenia. With the  same fairly large-scale exercises in Nakhichevan, the Turks tried to  exert force on Armenia. , nevertheless, in practice senseless, given  the presence of the Russian military base in Gyumri, "he stressed.  Noting Ankara's threats to Armenia regarding the supply of modern  Turkish-made UAVs to Azerbaijan, Yevseev noted Russia's assistance to  Armenia in preparing to repel drone attacks, which, according to his  forecasts, is quite realistic. According to him, in Idlib alone, the  Russian army shot down about 16 such Turkish UAVs.

According to the expert, Ankara is currently seeking to change the  regional balance of power in favor of Azerbaijan. One of the evidence  of this is the recent disinformation about the appearance of Turkish  fighters in the airspace of Armenia. Taking into account the presence  in Armenia of air defense systems, the Russian air defense system  based on the S-300 stationed in Gyumri, as well as the aviation  component of the 102nd base and the Armenian Armed Forces, the  appearance of Turkish aircraft in Armenia with impunity, according to  his estimates, is impossible. "In the end, the Turks actually  stealthily shot down two of our military planes in Syria. And I don't  think that our military would have missed Turkish planes in the  Armenian sky. Russia has never felt confidence in Turkey. But today  Moscow has taken a wait-and-see attitude. To fight Turkey we do not  seek, but the Turks do not seek to fight with us. In the event of a  direct clash with Russia, Turkey will not have any success. For  Armenia, this is a key geopolitical moment, "Yevseev stressed.

Commenting on the role of the CSTO in ensuring the national security  of Armenia, the expert noted that he does not consider this  organization an effective instrument for protecting Armenia. As  evidence of this, he considered the pro-Azerbaijani position of  Kazakhstan and the actual support of the position of Baku by Belarus  and the supply of a number of destabilizing systems to Azerbaijan.  Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the Karabakh conflict, rather,  demonstrate neutrality. "Thus, ensuring the territorial integrity and  national security of Armenia fits into the context of  Russian-Armenian bilateral, not collective relations," Yevseev  concluded.