ArmInfo. Turkey's behavior towards Armenia is predetermined by geopolitics, not the desires of some people in Ankara or Baku. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Vladimir Evseev, head of the department for Eurasian integration and development of the SCO of the Institute of CIS countries.
"It is clear that in the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation, Ankara acts from the position of a provocateur. I don't think that without Turkish support Azerbaijan would have decided on the July provocation on the border with Armenia. With the same fairly large-scale exercises in Nakhichevan, the Turks tried to exert force on Armenia. , nevertheless, in practice senseless, given the presence of the Russian military base in Gyumri, "he stressed. Noting Ankara's threats to Armenia regarding the supply of modern Turkish-made UAVs to Azerbaijan, Yevseev noted Russia's assistance to Armenia in preparing to repel drone attacks, which, according to his forecasts, is quite realistic. According to him, in Idlib alone, the Russian army shot down about 16 such Turkish UAVs.
According to the expert, Ankara is currently seeking to change the regional balance of power in favor of Azerbaijan. One of the evidence of this is the recent disinformation about the appearance of Turkish fighters in the airspace of Armenia. Taking into account the presence in Armenia of air defense systems, the Russian air defense system based on the S-300 stationed in Gyumri, as well as the aviation component of the 102nd base and the Armenian Armed Forces, the appearance of Turkish aircraft in Armenia with impunity, according to his estimates, is impossible. "In the end, the Turks actually stealthily shot down two of our military planes in Syria. And I don't think that our military would have missed Turkish planes in the Armenian sky. Russia has never felt confidence in Turkey. But today Moscow has taken a wait-and-see attitude. To fight Turkey we do not seek, but the Turks do not seek to fight with us. In the event of a direct clash with Russia, Turkey will not have any success. For Armenia, this is a key geopolitical moment, "Yevseev stressed.
Commenting on the role of the CSTO in ensuring the national security of Armenia, the expert noted that he does not consider this organization an effective instrument for protecting Armenia. As evidence of this, he considered the pro-Azerbaijani position of Kazakhstan and the actual support of the position of Baku by Belarus and the supply of a number of destabilizing systems to Azerbaijan. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan in the Karabakh conflict, rather, demonstrate neutrality. "Thus, ensuring the territorial integrity and national security of Armenia fits into the context of Russian-Armenian bilateral, not collective relations," Yevseev concluded.