ArmInfo. One should not hastily consider the processes in Belarus in the light of a color revolution - it is rather a protest movement caused by both internal and external reasons. A similar opinion was expressed by political scientist, associate professor at the Russian State University for the Humanities, expert of the Russian International Affairs Council Alexander Gushchin in an interview with ArmInfo correspondent.
"The first reason for these processes is psychological fatigue from the 26-year rule of one person. It is clear that this government was and is rather personalized, to a certain extent, authoritarian in nature. This is not a totalitarian regime, and it does not permeate all fields of public life, but it is a personified paternalistic regime, and the society is to a certain extent tired from the discourse of communication with it, "the political scientist believes.
At the same time, the expert believes that this is primarily due to the fact that generations have changed, and what was good in terms of communication with society in the 90s, when Lukashenko achieved great results in the fight against crime, with the preservation of the state's industrial potential, does not work today. "No matter how much Lukashenko is criticized now that the system is hardened and there are contradictions with Russia within the EAEU, this system to some extent had contributed to social stability, since it provided employment for the majority of the population of Belarus," the political scientist noted, adding that most of the Belarusian factories have a surplus of labor, which is done to maintain social stability.
At the same time, he added that in parallel with this, new social strata were formed - the IT sector, the middle urban class - and as a result, there is a generational conflict. "Under these conditions, it seems to me that the government to a certain extent ceased to correspond to the complex social system that had already formed in Belarus. That is, the government turned out to be too simple for a more complex society, and could not find these communication points of contact.
The second point is the belatedness of constitutional reforms, reforms of centralization and reforms towards collective leadership, with the formation of party structures that could colonize public sentiment, each in its own way. Even with the preservation of the authoritarian leadership, this could have been done earlier, "Gushchin believes.
The third omission, according to the expert, is foreign policy, since recently the Belarusian multi-vector line has been replaced by some tactical maneuvers. "And as a result, foreign policy partners from both the East and the West were largely dissatisfied with these maneuvers. We see that both in Russia and in the West, a number of media outlets and the corporate structures supporting them express a clear anti- Lukashensko position. Lukashenko promised too much, but did little and there is no real progress, including in the direction of the formation of the Union State, including on the roadmaps that Russia proposed on its own initiative. The combination of these factors played a role, "the Russian expert considers.
According to him, there is also a tactical factor, and after the elections, few people believed that Lukashenko won the support of 80% of voters. "It is another matter that the opposition was premeditated not to recognize the election results. But the announced result became a certain trigger and provoked public protests, which we witnessed. The authorities' excessively harsh reaction to them was also a provoking factor. There were, of course, provocations on the part of the opposition, but the fact that excessive force was used against the protesters played a decisive role, stirring up the workers, in whom the protest from both social and psychological fatigue, and protest against these disproportionate harsh measures, was formed. The combination of these internal and external measures led to a rather difficult situation faced today by the authorities, "the political scientist noted, adding that the street is now under the control of the opposition, and there are more and more people gathering on it.
At the same time, Gushchin believes that, given the pressure from the West, it will be quite difficult to keep this difficult situation under control, despite the fact that the President of Belarus announced his readiness to hold elections after the Constitutional reforms, which is unlikely to satisfy the opposition.
The political scientist is also convinced that Russia is doing the right thing by not taking open steps to intervene in the situation. He stated that the President of the Russian Federation, in his conversation with the German Chancellor, also stressed the inadmissibility of external interference in the internal affairs of Belarus. "But, external interference from the West, primarily from Lithuania and Poland, is clearly visible. It is, of course, veiled under a social orientation, without obvious anti-Russian sentiments, but there is a latent desire of certain circles in the future - and there is this risk, the risk of reformatting the future geopolitical vector. Of course, this will be done gradually, since color revolutions do not immediately lead to changes in the foreign policy vector'' Gushchin emphasized.
In his words, in the same Armenia, for example, one cannot say that the foreign policy course has changed dramatically, but in general, there are certain changes both among society and among young people in relation to Russia. In the long term, public sentiment may change, since there are many among the audience who are not pro-Russian, and this concerns, first of all, the middle class, urban youth.
The political scientist sees certain political risks in these processes. At the same time, he is convinced that today there is no alternative to national dialogue, but the question arises who will do this. Gushchin also believes that a lot will depend on whether Lukashenko's supporters, of whom there are many, certainly not 80%, but 40-50%, will be able to consolidate. According to him, today they are seriously losing to the street and the opposition.
"In principle, this is a serious risk for the Union State, and everything will depend on the further development of the political situation. And here it is important to what extent external partners, primarily Russia, Germany and China, will be able to reach a certain consensus regarding the future of Belarus, in the sense of how they will build their line on future reforms in Belarus, "he said, expressing his conviction that other external partners, such as Lithuania and Poland, play a more destructive role.
At the same time, Gushchin is convinced that after these processes in Belarus, if Lukashenko remains in power, there is no need to talk about any multi-vector approach, a lot will depend on whether the power vertical in the country will be preserved, but he will not have the former influence. National dialogue in the country will lead, one way or another, to a change in the political system.
At the same time, Gushchin believes that the internal political processes in Belarus will affect the integration projects in which Minsk participates, since in parallel with this the Belarusian economy will change. "But, it can not be stated that this will deal some kind of critical blow to the Eurasian Economic Union, since even from the point of view of relations with Russia, the Belarusian economy is so much interconnected that any changes will be long-term and sharp changes will lead to the collapse of the Belarusian economic system. ", - the expert concluded.
To note, mass opposition protests began throughout Belarus on August 9, after the presidential elections, in which, according to the CEC, incumbent head of state Alexander Lukashenko won 80.1% of the vote.
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