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 Tuesday, August 4 2020 14:18
David Stepanyan

Forecast: The situation around Karabakh will only worsen

Forecast: The situation around Karabakh will only worsen

ArmInfo.One of the co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict - Russia itself is facing many challenges and problems, member of the expert council of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Chief  Researcher at Dialogue of Civilizations Research Alexey Malashenko  expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"It is noteworthy that some of these challenges and problems of ours  are due to Turkey. Even more remarkable are the conversations and  discussions between Moscow and Ankara regarding the conflict between  Armenia and Azerbaijan. Turkey is already partially involved in these  processes. And due to its obvious assistance to Azerbaijan, it is  gradually becoming a serious regional actor, "he stressed.

According to Malashenko's estimates, the unsubstantiated and  therefore groundless optimism observed in the last two years in the  negotiations on Karabakh should have sooner or later develop into the  current situation. Meanwhile, the real positions of the parties to  the conflict, in his opinion, are being revealed precisely today. One  sounds a little soft, the other is harsher. Nevertheless, the content  of the sides' positions does not change anything from this tonality.

In light of the recent speeches of the leaders of Armenia and  Azerbaijan, the expert is convinced that none of the demands of the  parties is acceptable for the opposite side. In this light, he  expects from the upcoming meeting of the parties to the conflict only  statements that do not satisfy absolutely anyone and the  implementation of the functions of the OSCE Minsk Group. Malashenko  assesses the current state of affairs as a vicious circle. The light  at the end of the tunnel, in his opinion, is also not visible, given  the lack of readiness for the balanced concessions proposed by one of  the parties.

As it became known recently, the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs are  making efforts to organize the next meeting of the Foreign Ministers  of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In such a situation, the expert sees the only way out in ensuring the  duration of the process of meetings between the leaders of the  conflicting countries in order to avoid another escalation. This  process alone, according to him, requires impressive efforts from the  co-chairing countries. At the same time, according to his  assessments, the situation around Karabakh has no priority character  for any of these countries.  Accordingly, neither Russia, nor the  United States, nor France are able to constantly deal with this  conflict, which leads to its permanent escalation.

"The latter, in turn, creates challenges for the co-chairs of the  Minsk Group themselves. In this light, in the foreseeable future, I  predict the growth of existing and the emergence of new challenges,  both on the border and the line of contact in Karabakh, and in the  negotiation process itself. Threats are multi-vector and complex, the  situation is explosive and in the foreseeable future does not contain  even a hint of a settlement, "the Russian expert concluded. 

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