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 Tuesday, July 28 2020 15:32
David Stepanyan

Analyst: In the Karabakh issue, it is necessary to abandon illusions  and set realistic goals

Analyst: In the Karabakh issue, it is necessary to abandon illusions  and set realistic goals

ArmInfo.Unfortunately, there is no reason to expect the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, as well as other conflicts and problems in the world, in the current  international situation. A similar opinion was expressed to an  ArmInfo correspondent by Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the Presidium  of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy of the Russian  Federation, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine.

"The international system of relations, the whole world, is being  rebuilt into a state where each state, first of all, tries to  maintain its own stability. In this light, not counting the latest  aggravation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a direct  consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, nevertheless, I must note  that it was the pandemic that electrified the international  atmosphere quite strongly, "he stressed.  In a similar atmosphere,  according to Lukyanov, any conflict, even a frozen one, is capable of  exploding.  Against this background, the analyst considers it  necessary to give up illusions and set realistic goals. In the  foreseeable future, such a task in the case of Karabakh, in his  opinion, is to prevent the explosion of a delayed-action mine - the  Karabakh conflict. Unfortunately, it is premature to speak about the  final disposal and destruction of this mine, in his opinion.

The analyst considers the key internal political significance of the  conflict both in Armenia and Azerbaijan as one of the factors in  favor of his pessimistic forecast. In conditions when internal tasks  and moods become more important than foreign policy strategies, no  conflicts, in particular, such a conflict as the Karabakh conflict,  according to his forecasts, will not be resolved. First of all, for  fear of internal consequences and negative reactions from societies.

Commenting on the current role of Russia in the conflict, Lukyanov  stressed its more complex, than that of Turkey, diversified position  in relation to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow, unlike Ankara, cannot  afford populist statements, which the latter, however, is not going  to implement, cannot. Providing maximum moral support to Baku,  Turkey, according to the analyst's forecasts, will not directly  interfere in the conflict with Armenia.

"And the reason is not only that Turkey is bogged down in Syria and  Libya. The reason lies in Russia's obligations to its current,  uncontested military ally, Armenia. Failure to fulfill these  obligations, if the need arises, will be a very heavy blow to  Russia's reputation. No one in Moscow is interested in a similar  strike.  Therefore, she has to lead a thin line between Baku and  Yerevan. Turkey, by and large, owes nothing to Azerbaijan. Hence her  long tongue. Meanwhile, Russia, in the event of a real threat to the  security of Armenia, will simply be obliged to help her, "the analyst  concluded. 

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