ArmInfo.Unfortunately, there is no reason to expect the resolution of the Karabakh conflict, as well as other conflicts and problems in the world, in the current international situation. A similar opinion was expressed to an ArmInfo correspondent by Fyodor Lukyanov, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy of the Russian Federation, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine.
"The international system of relations, the whole world, is being rebuilt into a state where each state, first of all, tries to maintain its own stability. In this light, not counting the latest aggravation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a direct consequence of the coronavirus pandemic, nevertheless, I must note that it was the pandemic that electrified the international atmosphere quite strongly, "he stressed. In a similar atmosphere, according to Lukyanov, any conflict, even a frozen one, is capable of exploding. Against this background, the analyst considers it necessary to give up illusions and set realistic goals. In the foreseeable future, such a task in the case of Karabakh, in his opinion, is to prevent the explosion of a delayed-action mine - the Karabakh conflict. Unfortunately, it is premature to speak about the final disposal and destruction of this mine, in his opinion.
The analyst considers the key internal political significance of the conflict both in Armenia and Azerbaijan as one of the factors in favor of his pessimistic forecast. In conditions when internal tasks and moods become more important than foreign policy strategies, no conflicts, in particular, such a conflict as the Karabakh conflict, according to his forecasts, will not be resolved. First of all, for fear of internal consequences and negative reactions from societies.
Commenting on the current role of Russia in the conflict, Lukyanov stressed its more complex, than that of Turkey, diversified position in relation to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow, unlike Ankara, cannot afford populist statements, which the latter, however, is not going to implement, cannot. Providing maximum moral support to Baku, Turkey, according to the analyst's forecasts, will not directly interfere in the conflict with Armenia.
"And the reason is not only that Turkey is bogged down in Syria and Libya. The reason lies in Russia's obligations to its current, uncontested military ally, Armenia. Failure to fulfill these obligations, if the need arises, will be a very heavy blow to Russia's reputation. No one in Moscow is interested in a similar strike. Therefore, she has to lead a thin line between Baku and Yerevan. Turkey, by and large, owes nothing to Azerbaijan. Hence her long tongue. Meanwhile, Russia, in the event of a real threat to the security of Armenia, will simply be obliged to help her, "the analyst concluded.