ArmInfo. Analyzing all the recent actions of Azerbaijan on the north- eastern section of the border with Armenia, one gets the impression that these actions are completely aimless. It seems that acting in this way, in Baku they themselves do not know what, in fact, they want to achieve. Head of the Center for Globalization and Regional Cooperation Stepan Grigoryan expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.
"It seems that if Azerbaijan really has problems related to Artsakh, then logically the Azerbaijani army should solve the problem in the direction of Artsakh. Although there they would inevitably receive a powerful response similar to that of Tavush. However, to conduct positional battles on the border with Armenia, to stir up the South Caucasus - the CSTO's area of responsibility, in my opinion, is very dangerous and unproductive, 'he stressed.
Confirmation of this thesis, the political scientist considers the concern expressed in the context of Azerbaijan's destabilization of the situation in the region by Russia and Iran. In his opinion, today everyone already understands that the goal of Baku is to destabilize the South Caucasus. And this is a deadly prospect for Moscow, since the undermining of the South Caucasus will inevitably entail the projection of instability onto the already tense North Caucasus.
Grigoryan assesses all the recent actions of Ilham Aliyev as the actions of an overly nervous man, who was captured by his own promises to his own people. The impossibility of realizing these promises, the progressing corruption, social tension, according to the political scientist, could well have prompted Aliyev to try to find a splash of all these phenomena in Tavush.
At the same time, Baku and Ankara, in his opinion, are planning to "dock" the region with the Middle East through its destabilization. The goal is to bring the process of settling the Artsakh problem out of the monopoly jurisdiction of the OSCE Minsk Group to a broader platform. "At the same time, I do not think that any countries or organizations will wish to shoulder the burden of settling our long-standing conflict. The Minsk group will remain. The whole question is whether it will be effective, especially in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, "he said.
Aliyev, according to the political scientist, obviously suffered defeat and today is trying to mitigate its consequences for himself. The resignation of Elmar Mamedyarov and, in the near future, perhaps the Minister of Defense Zakir Hasanov, is clearly from this opera. "Aliyev needs those responsible for his own defeat. The leadership of Azerbaijan is in deep stress and in this state is capable of any mistake. Accordingly, we should be extremely vigilant. At the same time, I do not predict the enemy's activity in the Artsakh and Nakhchivan directions. First, Baku must digest the last defeat. For this reason, the situation will be relatively calm for some period, "the political scientist summed up.