Forecast: Coronavirus may make adjustments to the war of attrition  between Armenia and Azerbaijan

ArmInfo. Due to the unacceptability of concessions and compromises equally for both  Armenia and Azerbaijan, the current war with the expectation of  exhaustion has every prospect to continue further. Senior Researcher  at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO)  of Russian Academy of Science, President of the Scholarly Society of  Caucasus Studies Alexander Krylov expressed a similar opinion to  ArmInfo. 

"Given the irreconcilable moods in conflicting societies, there is no  approach that could lead to a turning point in the current situation  through diplomatic means. Nevertheless, a coronavirus pandemic can  lead to certain adjustments in the current situation around the  conflict. Given the radical changes that COVID-19 is already brought  into international relations, it is obvious that similar changes may  well take place in the South Caucasus, "he said.

In this context, according to Krylov, of fundamental importance in  the context of the Karabakh conflict is the degree of effectiveness  of the struggle of the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities against  the epidemic of coronavirus, overcoming its many devastating  consequences. The expert links the possible changes in the existing  balance of power in the post-coronavirus period with the degree of  success of this fight.  Coronavirus will strengthen the position of  the side of the conflict that will suffer the least losses from its  epidemic.  According to Krylov, a compromise based on negotiations so  far remains only one of the possible ways of developing the  situation. The power scenario is still relevant. And if implemented,  the new conditions of the world will be dictated by the winner.  Moreover, according to his estimates, the US plan for the  introduction of foreign peacekeeping forces into the region, followed  by dictating to the parties to the conflict their own conditions for  its resolution, has lost its relevance.

The appearance in Karabakh of international peacekeepers from NATO  countries or their allied states was discussed in the context of a  unipolar world and American plans to reshape the borders of the  Middle East. However, after a radical change in the international  situation in the past few years, these plans are not even remembered   today.  Since 1992, the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the  co-chairs from Russia, the USA and France, has been engaged in the  settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Currently, the settlement  process is nominally proceeding on the basis of the "Madrid  principles" put forward by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in 2007 in  Madrid and updated in 2009, which, among other things, envisage the  deployment of a peacekeeping contingent in the conflict zone.