ArmInfo. Due to the unacceptability of concessions and compromises equally for both Armenia and Azerbaijan, the current war with the expectation of exhaustion has every prospect to continue further. Senior Researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of Russian Academy of Science, President of the Scholarly Society of Caucasus Studies Alexander Krylov expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Given the irreconcilable moods in conflicting societies, there is no approach that could lead to a turning point in the current situation through diplomatic means. Nevertheless, a coronavirus pandemic can lead to certain adjustments in the current situation around the conflict. Given the radical changes that COVID-19 is already brought into international relations, it is obvious that similar changes may well take place in the South Caucasus, "he said.
In this context, according to Krylov, of fundamental importance in the context of the Karabakh conflict is the degree of effectiveness of the struggle of the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities against the epidemic of coronavirus, overcoming its many devastating consequences. The expert links the possible changes in the existing balance of power in the post-coronavirus period with the degree of success of this fight. Coronavirus will strengthen the position of the side of the conflict that will suffer the least losses from its epidemic. According to Krylov, a compromise based on negotiations so far remains only one of the possible ways of developing the situation. The power scenario is still relevant. And if implemented, the new conditions of the world will be dictated by the winner. Moreover, according to his estimates, the US plan for the introduction of foreign peacekeeping forces into the region, followed by dictating to the parties to the conflict their own conditions for its resolution, has lost its relevance.
The appearance in Karabakh of international peacekeepers from NATO countries or their allied states was discussed in the context of a unipolar world and American plans to reshape the borders of the Middle East. However, after a radical change in the international situation in the past few years, these plans are not even remembered today. Since 1992, the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the co-chairs from Russia, the USA and France, has been engaged in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Currently, the settlement process is nominally proceeding on the basis of the "Madrid principles" put forward by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in 2007 in Madrid and updated in 2009, which, among other things, envisage the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent in the conflict zone.