ArmInfo. Around Karabakh There are a number of factors that can inspire Baku on the next adventure - an attempt to repeat the April aggression.
A similar opinion was expressed by ArmInfo, the head of the Center for Globalization and regional cooperation Stepan Grigoryan. The four-day war in Artsakh began with a sudden attack by Azerbaijan on the night of April 2, 2016. The NKR Defense Army successfully suppressed the aggressive actions of the enemy. According to the RA Ministry of Defense, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces lost about 500 people, not to mention the loss of equipment. Armenia and Artsakh lost more than 100 people. "Among them are the electoral processes in Artsakh. In my opinion, the successful completion of the parliamentary and presidential elections will significantly strengthen the state-building process in Artsakh. And this cannot but unnerve Baku. It's encouraging the neighbors to suspend US aid to Artsakh and temporarily withdraw the OSCE mission from the conflict zone "The fact is that both processes were a deterrence mechanism for the militancy of Azerbaijan," he stressed.
According to the political scientist, given the preservation of the incomparably more extensive UN peacekeeping missions in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Mali, the hasty withdrawal of a small OSCE mission from Artsakh is surprising. In his opinion, the reason is in the recent processes around Artsakh, as a result of which the role of the OSCE Minsk Group is gradually decreasing with the filing of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Which in turn allows Baku to behave more arrogantly.
At the same time, in his opinion, today there is no visible increase in the role of other players in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. The Artsakh issue was pushed into the background. The first is coronavirus, on which the attention of all the main interested actors is focused today. However, this factor in turn strengthens the role of Armenia, Artsakh and Azerbaijan, which gives the parties to the conflict the opportunity to independently regulate relations.
Grigoryan is convinced that in the current conditions of Armenia it is necessary to show increased vigilance in the direction of defense of the line of contact with the enemy. According to him, the threat of war is growing, and the answer to this threat should be greater vigilance.
"Everything is interconnected. The USA deprives Artsakh of assistance due to Armenia's participation in the joint military and humanitarian mission in Syria. The USA could forgive us a lot, up to cooperation with Iran, but not Syria. The surprise of the West after the change of power in Armenia is caused by our vote at the UN against any initiative of Georgia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, today we don't even have direct contact with Russian President Putin. For the last period, Nikol Pashinyan has been in contact only with Prime Minister Mishustin. This indicates problems with Moscow and this is perfectly seen in Baku. And it may to once again inspire the enemy to military operations, "concluded Grigoryan.