Forecast: Yerevan`s problems with Moscow may again inspire Baku to  hostilities 

ArmInfo. Around Karabakh There are a number of factors that can inspire Baku on the next adventure - an attempt to repeat the April aggression.

A similar opinion was expressed by ArmInfo, the head of the Center  for Globalization and regional cooperation Stepan Grigoryan. The  four-day war in Artsakh began with a sudden attack by Azerbaijan on  the night of April 2, 2016. The NKR Defense Army successfully  suppressed the aggressive actions of the enemy. According to the RA  Ministry of Defense, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces lost about 500  people, not to mention the loss of equipment. Armenia and Artsakh  lost more than 100 people.  "Among them are the electoral processes  in Artsakh. In my opinion, the successful completion of the  parliamentary and presidential elections will significantly  strengthen the state-building process in Artsakh.  And this cannot  but unnerve Baku. It's encouraging the neighbors to suspend US aid to  Artsakh and temporarily withdraw the OSCE mission from the conflict  zone "The fact is that both processes were a deterrence mechanism for  the militancy of Azerbaijan," he stressed.

According to the political scientist, given the preservation of the  incomparably more extensive UN peacekeeping missions in Kosovo,  Afghanistan, Lebanon and Mali, the hasty withdrawal of a small OSCE  mission from Artsakh is surprising. In his opinion, the reason is in  the recent processes around Artsakh, as a result of which the role of  the OSCE Minsk Group is gradually decreasing with the filing of  Azerbaijan and Turkey. Which in turn allows Baku to behave more  arrogantly.

At the same time, in his opinion, today there is no visible increase  in the role of other players in the settlement of the Karabakh  conflict. The Artsakh issue was pushed into the background. The first  is coronavirus, on which the attention of all the main interested  actors is focused today. However, this factor in turn strengthens the  role of Armenia, Artsakh and Azerbaijan, which gives the parties to  the conflict the opportunity to independently regulate relations.

Grigoryan is convinced that in the current conditions of Armenia it  is necessary to show increased vigilance in the direction of defense  of the line of contact with the enemy. According to him, the threat  of war is growing, and the answer to this threat should be greater  vigilance.

"Everything is interconnected. The USA deprives Artsakh of assistance  due to Armenia's participation in the joint military and humanitarian  mission in Syria. The USA could forgive us a lot, up to cooperation  with Iran, but not Syria. The surprise of the West after the change  of power in Armenia is caused by our vote at the UN against any  initiative of Georgia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, today we don't even  have direct contact with Russian President Putin. For the last  period, Nikol Pashinyan has been in contact only with Prime Minister  Mishustin. This indicates problems with Moscow and this is perfectly  seen in Baku. And it may to once again inspire the enemy to military  operations, "concluded Grigoryan.