A view from Moscow: The risks of unfreezing the Karabakh conflict are  no higher today than in its entire history

ArmInfo. The negotiating positions of the parties to the Karabakh conflict can only change if there is a violation of the military-political balance in favor of  one of the parties and, accordingly, if it achieves a  military-political advantage.

A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Alexander Skakov, coordinator of the working group of the Center for Central Asian and Caucasian Studies at the Institute of  Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commenting on  the escalation of the situation by Azerbaijan on the border with  Armenia.

In the evening of March 30, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces made another  attempt to sabotage penetration in the region of the Armenian Armed  Forces in the Tavush region. "The enemy has been thrown back, his  losses are being ascertained. On our part, two servicemen were  slightly injured," said Shushan Stepanyan, Spokesperson for the  Armenian Ministry of Defense. At the same time, the enemy fired at  the villages of Baghanis and Voskevan, as a result of which a  14-year-old resident of Voskevan was injured.

"We all clearly see that no political debate between the leaders of  Armenia and Azerbaijan in any way testifies on any changes in the  positions of the parties to the conflict. In the absence of such  changes, we, accordingly, cannot expect significant changes in the  situation around the conflict zone, moreover, both on the  Armenian-Azerbaijani border, and on the Line of Contact in Karabakh,  "the political scientist emphasized.

At the same time, he emphasized the increased responsibility of the  parties to the conflict for observing the ceasefire due to the  impossibility of monitoring the situation by the OSCE Minsk Group.  According to Skakov, in turn, the corresponding appeal of the  co-chairs to Yerevan and Baku is of a warning nature. The political  scientist himself does not believe that the lack of an observation  mission in the conflict zone leads to an increase in the risks of the  resumption of the open phase of the conflict.

In his opinion, the existing risks have always been neutralized  solely by maintaining a military and political balance between the  parties to the conflict. In this light, the maintenance of a  ceasefire regime was not expected solely due to meetings between the  foreign ministers and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan.  At the  same time, the mechanisms for monitoring compliance with this regime  were certainly welcomed, but also were not able to completely  neutralize the risks of the resumption of hostilities.

"In this light, I don't think that Baku will agree to increase such  mechanisms of control over the parties' observance of the ceasefire.  It will neither agree with Stepanakert's returning to the negotiating  table.  However, in the current conditions I do not assess the risks  of unfreezing the conflict as higher than ever before in the history  of this conflict. The parties have no alternative but to remain  vigilant ", Skakov concluded.