ArmInfo. The negotiating positions of the parties to the Karabakh conflict can only change if there is a violation of the military-political balance in favor of one of the parties and, accordingly, if it achieves a military-political advantage.
A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Alexander Skakov, coordinator of the working group of the Center for Central Asian and Caucasian Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, commenting on the escalation of the situation by Azerbaijan on the border with Armenia.
In the evening of March 30, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces made another attempt to sabotage penetration in the region of the Armenian Armed Forces in the Tavush region. "The enemy has been thrown back, his losses are being ascertained. On our part, two servicemen were slightly injured," said Shushan Stepanyan, Spokesperson for the Armenian Ministry of Defense. At the same time, the enemy fired at the villages of Baghanis and Voskevan, as a result of which a 14-year-old resident of Voskevan was injured.
"We all clearly see that no political debate between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in any way testifies on any changes in the positions of the parties to the conflict. In the absence of such changes, we, accordingly, cannot expect significant changes in the situation around the conflict zone, moreover, both on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, and on the Line of Contact in Karabakh, "the political scientist emphasized.
At the same time, he emphasized the increased responsibility of the parties to the conflict for observing the ceasefire due to the impossibility of monitoring the situation by the OSCE Minsk Group. According to Skakov, in turn, the corresponding appeal of the co-chairs to Yerevan and Baku is of a warning nature. The political scientist himself does not believe that the lack of an observation mission in the conflict zone leads to an increase in the risks of the resumption of the open phase of the conflict.
In his opinion, the existing risks have always been neutralized solely by maintaining a military and political balance between the parties to the conflict. In this light, the maintenance of a ceasefire regime was not expected solely due to meetings between the foreign ministers and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, the mechanisms for monitoring compliance with this regime were certainly welcomed, but also were not able to completely neutralize the risks of the resumption of hostilities.
"In this light, I don't think that Baku will agree to increase such mechanisms of control over the parties' observance of the ceasefire. It will neither agree with Stepanakert's returning to the negotiating table. However, in the current conditions I do not assess the risks of unfreezing the conflict as higher than ever before in the history of this conflict. The parties have no alternative but to remain vigilant ", Skakov concluded.