ArmInfo.. Any attempt by Baku to repeat the April 2016 scenario will end with the return to the negotiating table of the Vienna agreements with all their mechanisms for monitoring the situation and punishing the initiator of the ceasefire violation. Director of the Armenian Institute of International Relations and Security Stepan Safaryan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Of course, in principle, another local escalation is possible. However, the Armenian parties made conclusions from April 2016 and the surprise factor Azerbaijan is deprived today. At the same time, the post-April technical re-equipment of the border significantly limited the possibilities of Azerbaijani sabotage and attacks. For the long-term large-scale war of Azerbaijan's resources And even in the case of a hypothetical victory, taking into account the accompanying damage and consequences, it will be impossible to even call it a victory, "he stressed.
According to the a political analyst, the seemingly completed tactical success of Azerbaijan's April 2016 war almost immediately transformed into a foreign policy and diplomatic failure. Baku hoped to force Yerevan to make concessions through military pressure, however, it only finally brought the negotiation process to a standstill. And the four April days finally brought Armenia closer to the red line, leaving no room for conflict resolution on the basis of compromises.
"Thus, today there are all the prerequisites necessary for the return of Artsakh to the negotiating table. Baku will have to do this without even having arguments in favor of rejecting Yerevan's proposals. The return of the Artsakh people will allow them to restart the negotiations and even give them at least some prospects for resolution, "the political analyst concluded. A government delegation led by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will visit Vienna on March 28-29. According to ArmInfo's foreign diplomatic sources, within the framework of the March 29 visit, Pashinyan and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev will meet with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. According to Pashinyan, the agenda of the meeting includes the specification of principles for resolving the conflict and the issue of bringing Artsakh to the negotiating table.
To note, the threshold of the meeting of the heads of the conflicting countries was marked by the death of military personnel. According to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, "on March 26, a soldier of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces died as a result of shelling by the enemy of Azerbaijani positions in the Fizuli direction." In turn, the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Artsakh declared the death of a soldier- conscript Ara Arakelyan under as yet unexplained circumstances .-