Forecast: Baku`s attempt to repeat the scenario of April 2016 will  end with the return to the negotiating table of the Vienna agreements

ArmInfo.. Any attempt by Baku to repeat the April 2016 scenario will end with the return to the negotiating table of the Vienna agreements with all their mechanisms  for monitoring the situation and punishing the initiator of the  ceasefire violation. Director of the Armenian Institute of  International Relations and Security Stepan Safaryan expressed a  similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Of course, in principle, another local escalation is possible.  However, the Armenian parties made conclusions from April 2016 and  the surprise factor Azerbaijan is deprived today. At the same time,  the post-April technical re-equipment of the border significantly  limited the possibilities of Azerbaijani sabotage and attacks. For  the long-term large-scale war of Azerbaijan's resources And even in  the case of a hypothetical victory, taking into account the  accompanying damage and consequences, it will be impossible to even  call it a victory, "he stressed.

According to the a political analyst, the seemingly completed  tactical success of Azerbaijan's April 2016 war almost immediately  transformed into a foreign policy and diplomatic failure. Baku hoped  to force Yerevan to make concessions through military pressure,  however, it only finally brought the negotiation process to a  standstill. And the four April days finally brought Armenia closer to  the red line, leaving no room for conflict resolution on the basis of  compromises.

"Thus, today there are all the prerequisites necessary for the return  of Artsakh to the negotiating table. Baku will have to do this  without even having arguments in favor of rejecting Yerevan's  proposals. The return of the Artsakh people will allow them to  restart the negotiations and even give them at least some prospects  for resolution, "the political analyst concluded. A government  delegation led by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will visit  Vienna on March 28-29. According to ArmInfo's foreign diplomatic  sources, within the framework of the March 29 visit, Pashinyan and  President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev will meet with the mediation of  the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. According to Pashinyan, the agenda of  the meeting includes the specification of principles for resolving  the conflict and the issue of bringing Artsakh to the negotiating  table.

To note, the threshold of the meeting of the heads of the conflicting  countries was marked by the death of military personnel. According to  the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, "on March 26, a soldier of the  Azerbaijani Armed Forces died as a result of shelling by the enemy of  Azerbaijani positions in the Fizuli direction." In turn, the Ministry  of Defense of the Republic of Artsakh declared the death of a  soldier- conscript Ara Arakelyan under as yet unexplained  circumstances .-