Forecast: Over time, Baku will find it harder to explain to the world  the reluctance to talk with Stepanakert

ArmInfo. Baku is already difficult and over time it will only be harder to explain to the  world its own unwillingness to speak with a Stepanakert. Director of  the Armenian Center for Strategic and National Studies Manvel  Sargsyan expressed such  opinion to ArmInfo.

"The current situation around the Karabakh conflict is characterized  by the withdrawal of old approaches around its settlement. The Vienna  agreement on the implementation of control mechanisms and the  identification of the violator of the truce led to the fact that the  so-called military diplomacy worked against Azerbaijan itself. In  other words, the shots began to play against the violator of the  truce which is extremely dangerous for Baku. Plus, the change of  power in Yerevan led to the failure of the Yerevan-Moscow-Baku  triangle whereby Azerbaijan repeatedly forced Serzh Sargsyan and to  the solutions that are necessary. In April 2016, this became obvious,  "he stressed.

In this light, according to analysts, the negotiation process will  resume only with the return of the Artsakh people to the negotiating  table. At the same time, in Baku, in his opinion, he will not agree.  However, no one in the world, except Turkey and Pakistan, is going to  recognize the de facto formal rights of Azerbaijan to Artsakh, while  not recognizing its right to use force. Thus, Baku, according to  Sargsyan, it remains only to conduct formal negotiations, trying to  return to the situation before April 2016.

According to the analyst, while recognizing the preservation of the  status quo around Artsakh for an indefinite time, the world community  will not accept military resolution of the conflict and no one will  allow Azerbaijan to be shot. According to his estimates, it is  becoming more and more dangerous to play with the Karabakh conflict.  And the high legitimacy of the new authorities of Armenia and, as a  result, the degree of sovereignty deprived even the former methods of  influence on Yerevan.

Conflict resolution Sargsyan connects with the achievement of  international consensus on this issue. On the example of Kosovo. In  this light, he noted the achievement of a similar consensus on the  issue of the non- use of force to resolve the conflict. In this  light, according to his forecasts, the unauthorized provocation by  Baku of a new round of escalation will end very badly for Azerbaijan.  Especially, taking into account the results of the "four-day war" of  2016.  "Starting a war today is a serious matter, but rather a  serious one. Especially full-scale, which will then be very difficult  to stop. Such a war would destabilize the entire vast region, part of  which is the South Caucasus, up to the Russian North Caucasus.  Fortunately, today everyone understands , hence the international  consensus prohibiting Azerbaijan from using force, "the analyst  concluded.