ArmInfo.Most likely, pragmatic politicians in Armenia and Azerbaijan will not risk their own popularity for the sake of abstract ideas of "peace and democracy". Independent Russian analyst, expert on the South Caucasus Sergey Markedonov expressed ArmInfo.
"Concluded with the formula on" preparing peoples for peace "the January talks of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers, which was preceded by the statement of Elmar Mamedyarov on" mutual understanding with the Armenian counterpart for the first time in a long time, "the third informal meeting of Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev in Davos significantly intensified the discussion regarding the prospects for the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. There are publications, the authors of which predict a quick outcome of the conflict, and even call the terms of a diplomatic deal to areas adjacent to the territory of the former NKAO. At the same time, the question of the validity of such expectations is still open, "the analyst believes.
Meanwhile, according to Markedonov, in their articles and analyzes on the situation around Karabakh, journalists and experts are not the first time to fall into the so-called. momentary trap. Within the framework of a similar, erroneous perception of reality, the events are viewed by researchers under a magnifying glass, against the background of complete disregard or lack of due attention in relation to broader contexts.To return to the land, Markedonov advises overly optimistic-minded colleagues to try to answer the basic question: why should the Karabakh conflict not resolved for a quarter of a century suddenly have to be resolved after several statements by the foreign ministers, the governments of the conflicting countries or the diplomats? In this light, the analyst stresses that in light of the prominence of the main negotiation theses between Armenia, Azerbaijan and the mediators, there is simply no need for conspiratorial theories.
"Analyzing the prospects for settlement in Karabakh, it should be borne in mind that any agreement is not the end, but only the beginning of a long way towards realizing the agreements on paper in practice. Here we recall how achieving peace led to confrontations within societies, at least on the example of Ireland The peace with Great Britain concluded in the 20s of the last century led to a civil war between yesterday's like- minded people in Ireland. In this light, I will not risk the popularity of abstract ideas of politics in Yerevan and Baku In the conditions of confrontation between them, external pressure from the West and Russia cannot be systematic and consolidated, "the analyst is convinced.Markedonov is convinced that the Karabakh problem is not only a conflict between the two republics, not only the plot of geopolitical games around a turbulent region, but also an internal political issue. The issue has contributed to the change of power in both Yerevan and Baku. In this light, the conflict, according to his estimates, is in the absence of elites' readiness for concessions and, accordingly, the impossibility of speeding up the settlement process by the mediators.And if Moscow, in his opinion, fears a break in the status quo, Washington and Paris simply do not see the primacy in the Karabakh problem, which would force them to fully switch to its resolution.
"However, peacekeeping optimism is necessary to establish relations between Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev. And regardless of the outcome of the process, it is these two politicians who will bear the burden of responsibility for them, "Markedonov said. Since 1992, the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the co- chairs from Russia, the United States and France, has been involved in resolving the Karabakh conflict. At present, the settlement process is proceeding on the basis of the Madrid Principles put forward by the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs in 2007 and the Madrid Principles updated in 2009, among other things, providing for the deployment of a peacekeeping force in the conflict zone.