Arminfo.info


 Monday, December 3 2018 13:33
David Stepanyan

Expert: Only four political forces have chances to be elected to the Armenian parliament

Expert: Only four political forces have chances to be elected to the Armenian parliament

ArmInfoResearcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Andrei Areshev in an interview with ArmInfo forecasts the most likely outcome of the elections to the National Assembly of Armenia scheduled for December 9. He comments on the chances of various political forces, shares the Russian perception of Armenia's internal political arena. He talks about the need for changes in the Russian policy towards the ruling elites in the post-Soviet space.

 

“My Step” bloc's victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia on December 9 is beyond doubt. And which parties, in your opinion, are the most likely contenders for the second and third places? Is it possible that a fourth force will enter into parliament?

 

First of all, I would like to note that there is a direct connection between the upcoming elections and the velvet revolution in Armenia. It was the events of April-May 2018 that brought Nikol Pashinyan to the prime minister’s position and consequently, it was he who has dictated the political agenda in Armenia. And the results of the elections to Yerevan Council of Elders demonstrated that popularity of Pashinyan and all the forces and groups consolidated in his “My Step” bloc is still quite high.

Thus, there can be no doubt who will take the first place on December 9. The electoral support of "My step" bloc ranges between 60-70%. In this light, the ruling regime has no need to use the administrative resource, moreover falsify the elections.

At the same time, in contrast to the first place, there is still intrigue who will take the second and third places. And, in my opinion, despite all its hastiness, the parliamentary election campaign in Armenia can still spring many surprises, in a certain way, capable of influencing the rating of the “My Step” bloc and its main opponents. Obviously, “Prosperous Armenia” led by Gagik Tsarukyan has significant resources to take the second place, which are first of all reflected in specific projects and actions. Consequently, I suppose that it will be this very party that will take the second place in the elections, although various attempts to manipulate public opinion in regard of ''Prosperous Armenia'' will be made.

 

There is also a new, quite radical and assertive political force in Armenia - the Sasna Tsrer party. It is noteworthy that this force in foreign policy puts forward, if not extremist, then quite radical and harsh slogans. Moreover, these slogans are often quite contradictory. Of course, in all this, in my opinion, there is enough of the desire to attract public attention and win support. Perhaps, this is done with the aim of overstretching a part of the electorate, which traditionally votes, for example, for the Dashnaktsutyun party. Nevertheless, it seems to me that in any case, flirting with radical sentiments in the post-Soviet space did not lead anyone to the good. And I had said this with reference to the former authorities of Armenia as well. We can already see how representatives of the Sasna Tsrer declare that the new parliament can survive for a maximum of one and a half to two years. As far as I understand their logic, this time is needed for some regular constitutional reforms.

 

That is, already today “Sasna Tsrer” makes a serious claim for the first place?

 

I think yes. This is noticeable at least by a rather sharp response from Nikol Pashinyan. And today, in my opinion, there are many scenarios for the development of further events in Armenia, including quite extreme ones. At the same time, it seems to me, the realization of such scenarios is not in Armenia's interests, given that the country faces a rather complicated, rather turbulent period.

I can assume that after December 9 this turbulence will not end, as the rather complex process of forming a new, already full-fledged government will begin. Taking into account the future reshuffle in Nikol Pashinyan's party, which will now be represented in the parliament, difficulties will arise again with the selection of qualified personnel. And judging by the rather negative public reaction to the appointment of the former first deputy police head, Hunan Poghosyan, as governor of Syunik, shocks and discontent can be expected in the event of the possible involvement of former members of the Republican Party in the ruling team.

 

 

At the same time Republicans have radically changed their own identity, serious changes have taken place within the party and now it quite harshly opposes Pashinyan pointing at real existing problems as well. I can not tell how many chances RPA has to overcome the 5% threshold, however in case of rather competent administration they are still able to mobilize resources remained after being in power for 20 years.

 

 

In other words, in your assessment, only three, four forces, mentioned by you have real chances to enter parliament?

 

 

I think yes. The remaining political structures are still little known in Armenia. I am quite doubtful related to ARFD, the remaining parties can get only insignificant votes. Especially against the background that the intentions of the new government to reform the Electoral Code remained intentions, and the upcoming elections will be held according to the old Electoral Code with its preferential voting system. In this light, we understand that, especially in the regions, representatives of the Republican Party of Armenia and some other parties may enter the parliament via the preference lists.

 

 

In your opinion, does the so-called radicalism of “Sasna Tsrer”, particularly in foreign policy, aimed at attracting the anti-Russian part of the Armenian electorate, differ much from Nikol Pashinyan’s stance, when he was an opposition lawmaker? Prior to coming to power Pashinyan also called for Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU, the CSTO, and a radical revision of relations with Russia. And the stance of Sasna Tsrer may change the same way in case of taking the power ...

 

It is impossible to determine the number of people critical of Russia today, however, such people in Armenia, of course, exist. And the upcoming parliamentary elections in this sense will certainly become a definite test. As for the changes in Pashinyan’s rhetoric before and after coming to power, we are well aware that this is not the only example of the conditional evolution of politicians in the post-Soviet space.

 

It's one thing when you are an editor of an opposition newspaper or an opposition politician, and quite another when you are the head of government, who has serious powers under the new Constitution. A person is obliged to solve serious, strategic issues, including in terms of foreign policy, ensuring national security and the country's defense capability, All of these sectors are traditionally associated in Armenia with close cooperation with Russia. This issue, by the way, was not brought into question either by the first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan, or by his successors, with whom Nikol Pashinyan so actively fought at different stages of his political career.

 

I would refrain from judging today the future actions and the policy pursued by Sasna Tsrer in the event of a hypothetical serious entry  into power. I can only express my concerns that Sasna Tsrer is not purely an Armenian political and technological project.

 

Pashinyan has been and is still accused of being pro-Western, but we see that this fact has so far had no negative impact on the level of relations with Russia...

 

Certainly, this is true. Moreover, not only him, but also some other representatives of the current authorities have been accused. However, in the case of Sasna Tsrer, the level of their radicalism is still scary. In case of Pashinyan there was no such radicalism.

 

In any country of the post-Soviet space and not only the Kremlin traditionally stakes on the ruling elite, usually on one top figure. Meanwhile, using the example of Armenia as a minimum, we witnessed the ineffectiveness of such a policy. Today, the RPA is somewhere at the bottom of the political arena, and with the new Armenian government, Russia today is forming bridges. In your opinion, isn’t it a necessity for Russia to adopt the Western model - cooperation with the entire spectrum of political and social forces in its relations, at least with the countries of the former USSR?

 

Such a change of approach in foreign policy in the post-Soviet space is being seriously discussed in Russia at various levels. I personally support the approach you have mentioned. And in the scope of my modest capacities I am trying to bring it to life. However, there is a certain inertia in the approaches and personal ties, being established for decades. And on the most vivid Ukrainian example we can see how the existing approach ceases to work, and Russia needs to establish contacts with all the representatives of political arena.

However, I should state that such contacts in fact were established with the same Nikol Pashinyan, when he was a member of parliament. It seems to me that it is time for Russia to stop learning from its mistakes and move on to a more active and integrated policy in this regard. I think that at the level of the expert community of the Caucasian study platforms existing in Russia there is undoubtedly an awareness of this need. However it is completely different question what conclusions will be drawn from this at the political level.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Lawyer: Lawyer: "Chief Investigator" "instructed" to search the place where  we, as Christians, enter with reverence
Lawyer: Any new action by security forces at the Mother See of Holy  Etchmiadzin will be considered a Lawyer: Any new action by security forces at the Mother See of Holy  Etchmiadzin will be considered a "deliberate encroachment"
Seyran Ohanyan stripped of his parliamentary immunitySeyran Ohanyan stripped of his parliamentary immunity
Armenian wrestlers return with medals from  European Freestyle  Wrestling Championship  in ItalyArmenian wrestlers return with medals from  European Freestyle  Wrestling Championship  in Italy
NA ruling faction members approved Prosecutor General`s motion to  prosecute Artsvik MinasyanNA ruling faction members approved Prosecutor General`s motion to  prosecute Artsvik Minasyan
Foreign Minister: Armenia has decided to enlarge, increase its  participation in the SCOForeign Minister: Armenia has decided to enlarge, increase its  participation in the SCO
Moody`s upgrades Converse Bank`s ratingsMoody`s upgrades Converse Bank`s ratings
RA Investigative Committee  press secretary responds to Galstanyan`s  lawyer`s statement  that  published recording was falsified and taken  out of contextRA Investigative Committee  press secretary responds to Galstanyan`s  lawyer`s statement  that  published recording was falsified and taken  out of context
RA National Security Council Secretary receives Ambassador of SwedenRA National Security Council Secretary receives Ambassador of Sweden
Saakashvili: Pashinyan has officially taken a course on EU membershipSaakashvili: Pashinyan has officially taken a course on EU membership
Swedish Ambassador concludes his mission in ArmeniaSwedish Ambassador concludes his mission in Armenia
Prosecutor General asks for criminal prosecution against a member of  Armenia`s National AssemblyProsecutor General asks for criminal prosecution against a member of  Armenia`s National Assembly
Geghard Foundation: Any state that  supports Aliyev`s rhetoric  complicit with Azerbaijan in the event of future aggression in the  regionGeghard Foundation: Any state that  supports Aliyev`s rhetoric  complicit with Azerbaijan in the event of future aggression in the  region
Kremlin: Moscow and Baku should remain partners and alliesKremlin: Moscow and Baku should remain partners and allies
Ruling elite focuses efforts on internal policy, ignoring external  challenges - opposition MPRuling elite focuses efforts on internal policy, ignoring external  challenges - opposition MP
Official unveiling ceremony of Charles Aznavour`s monument to take  place in Yerevan on July 18Official unveiling ceremony of Charles Aznavour`s monument to take  place in Yerevan on July 18
Preliminary investigation into riots in Syunik completed Preliminary investigation into riots in Syunik completed 
 Armenia`s Ministry of Environment proposes introducing institute of  extended producer responsibility for producers  Armenia`s Ministry of Environment proposes introducing institute of  extended producer responsibility for producers 
Caucasus has no patience to experience one more conflict - Recep  Erdogan Caucasus has no patience to experience one more conflict - Recep  Erdogan 
Armenian premier`s statement order to Prosecutor`s Office - lawyers Armenian premier`s statement order to Prosecutor`s Office - lawyers 
`Terrorism` case means of pressing `unwelcome ones` - lawyer `Terrorism` case means of pressing `unwelcome ones` - lawyer 
Yerevan must meet growing demand for sports competitions - mayor Yerevan must meet growing demand for sports competitions - mayor 
Isolation of clergymen and businessman shows bankruptcy and fears of  ruling regime - expertIsolation of clergymen and businessman shows bankruptcy and fears of  ruling regime - expert
Digital broadcasting to be suspended in Armenia Digital broadcasting to be suspended in Armenia 
Muster of reservists to take place in Armenia Sept 23 to Nov 28Muster of reservists to take place in Armenia Sept 23 to Nov 28
Armenian MP proposes using `political persecution` in place of  `prosecution`Armenian MP proposes using `political persecution` in place of  `prosecution`
Political scientist Karen Igityan prohibited from entering ArmeniaPolitical scientist Karen Igityan prohibited from entering Armenia
Armenia`s premier addresses message concerning Catholicos Garegin II Armenia`s premier addresses message concerning Catholicos Garegin II 
Armenia`s territory cannot be used by third countries for military  operations - RA MFA Armenia`s territory cannot be used by third countries for military  operations - RA MFA 
Armenian MFA summons Russian Ambassador over “hostile propaganda” against it Armenian MFA summons Russian Ambassador over “hostile propaganda” against it
Archbishops Mikael Ajapakhian and Bagrat Galstanian, currently in NSS  detention center, go on hunger strikeArchbishops Mikael Ajapakhian and Bagrat Galstanian, currently in NSS  detention center, go on hunger strike
Holy Etchmiadzin issued statement expressing indignation at   reprehensible campaign unleashed by Holy Etchmiadzin issued statement expressing indignation at   reprehensible campaign unleashed by 
Under  hashtag #MERDZEVOV, march in support of political prisoner,  well-known businessman and entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan starting on  the central boulevard of YerevanUnder  hashtag #MERDZEVOV, march in support of political prisoner,  well-known businessman and entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan starting on  the central boulevard of Yerevan
A march in support of Samvel Karapetyan started in YerevanA march in support of Samvel Karapetyan started in Yerevan
A leader without trust, an opposition without support and peace  without concessions:  Nikol Pashinyan`s 7 years in powerA leader without trust, an opposition without support and peace  without concessions:  Nikol Pashinyan`s 7 years in power
Armenian Cathedral of Ani to function as a mosque after restorationArmenian Cathedral of Ani to function as a mosque after restoration
IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025
Christian Solidarity International urges UN Human Rights Council to  appoint a special rapporteur for Nagorno-KarabakhChristian Solidarity International urges UN Human Rights Council to  appoint a special rapporteur for Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia`s public multiplex  should not be used to serve foreign  policy agendas - StatementArmenia`s public multiplex  should not be used to serve foreign  policy agendas - Statement
Lawyer: the next part of Marlezon Ballet being staged in parliamentLawyer: the next part of Marlezon Ballet being staged in parliament
Alen Simonyan believes that Catholicos of All Armenians will soon  vacate Patriarchal throneAlen Simonyan believes that Catholicos of All Armenians will soon  vacate Patriarchal throne
Armenian Court of Appeal upholds Samvel Karapetyan`s arrestArmenian Court of Appeal upholds Samvel Karapetyan`s arrest
Lindsay Snell calls for support of  ANCA initiative to launch a  bipartisan Congressional letter in defense of Artsakh Armenians Lindsay Snell calls for support of  ANCA initiative to launch a  bipartisan Congressional letter in defense of Artsakh Armenians 
According to recording, <Tashir Samvel> was supposed to join later,  and Bagrat Galstanyan speaks about this: RA NA Speaker According to recording, was supposed to join later,  and Bagrat Galstanyan speaks about this: RA NA Speaker 
Levon Kocharyan is not a political figure: Alen Simonyan does not  comment on his remarksLevon Kocharyan is not a political figure: Alen Simonyan does not  comment on his remarks
Taguhi Tovmasyan to RA Prosecutor General: Maybe you haven`t received   SMS, and there is no political expediency in punishing Civil  Contract`s favorite businessman ?Taguhi Tovmasyan to RA Prosecutor General: Maybe you haven`t received   SMS, and there is no political expediency in punishing Civil  Contract`s favorite businessman ?
French Arnouville adopts resolution condemning unfair expulsion of   ICRC from AzerbaijanFrench Arnouville adopts resolution condemning unfair expulsion of   ICRC from Azerbaijan
Gegham Stepanyan: Artsakh art historians have no legal issues in  Armenia, difficulties exist only in practical fieldGegham Stepanyan: Artsakh art historians have no legal issues in  Armenia, difficulties exist only in practical field
All conversations and a fragment of the recording with Archbishop  Bagrat Galstanyan are manipulative - ARFAll conversations and a fragment of the recording with Archbishop  Bagrat Galstanyan are manipulative - ARF
Azerbaijan holding 17th ECO summit in occupied StepanakertAzerbaijan holding 17th ECO summit in occupied Stepanakert
Vahagn Chakhalyan detained Vahagn Chakhalyan detained 
RA Prosecutor General personally submitted report on Samvel  Karapetyan, which is evidence of political persecution - lawyer RA Prosecutor General personally submitted report on Samvel  Karapetyan, which is evidence of political persecution - lawyer 
Azerbaijani regime continues crackdown on journalists Azerbaijani regime continues crackdown on journalists 
RA FM holds farewell meeting with Swedish ambassador to Armenia RA FM holds farewell meeting with Swedish ambassador to Armenia 
Transport movement to be stopped in some of Yerevan`s neighborhoods  on July 4 and 5 Transport movement to be stopped in some of Yerevan`s neighborhoods  on July 4 and 5 
Cultural return must be cause of return to Artsakh - ex-minister of  culture Cultural return must be cause of return to Artsakh - ex-minister of  culture 
`Armenia`s ruling force staging performance against me` - Seyran  Ohanyan `Armenia`s ruling force staging performance against me` - Seyran  Ohanyan 
RA NA discussing consent to prosecution of MPs Seyran Ohanyan and  Artsvik Minasyan RA NA discussing consent to prosecution of MPs Seyran Ohanyan and  Artsvik Minasyan 
Yerevan hopes for strategic partnership with Washington Yerevan hopes for strategic partnership with Washington 
Pashinyan to Trump: `I highly appreciate your vision for ending  conflicts and establishing peace in the world`Pashinyan to Trump: `I highly appreciate your vision for ending  conflicts and establishing peace in the world`
Read more



Commented