Ruben Safrastyan: During the visit of John Bolton to the South  Caucasus, it became obvious that the US policy towards the countries  of the region has prerequisites for change

ArmInfo.One of the main issues related to the visit of the national security adviser to the President of the United States John Bolton was related to whether the  US policy towards the South Caucasus has changed or not. The director  of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the National Academy of  Sciences of Armenia, turkologist, professor Ruben Safrastyan stated  this at a press conference.

He noted that the administration of President Barack Obama considered  its policy in the region through the prism of its relations with  Russia, and the question was whether this policy would change with  Donald Trump or not. According to Safrastyan, changes are outlined in  the White House's policy, despite the fact that Bolton's statements  are not obvious.One of the changes, as the expert noted, is the  possible lifting of the ban on the sale of weapons. "It seems to me  that the United States will strive to develop its relations with the  countries of the region as independent subjects separate from  Russia," the expert emphasized.

The expert noted that Bolton's statement that Donald Trump can use  his authority to suspend the 907th Amendment to the Freedom Support  Act, which limits US assistance to Azerbaijan at the state level, was  important in this visit. "If this decision is made, large-scale arms  sales to Azerbaijan will begin. As a result, the military potential  of Azerbaijan will increase significantly," the director of Institute  of Oriental Studies, Armenian National Academy of Sciences said.

Safrastyan said that the target of Bolton's visit to the South  Caucasus was Azerbaijan. "Regarding Georgia, the US policy is  unchanged. It was obvious that during this visit Bolton in Georgia  would discuss only the extent of financial assistance," the expert  said.

As for Baku, Bolton's visit to Azerbaijan, according to Safrastyan,  has anti-Iranian character. "The fact is that relations with  Azerbaijan are strategic for Iran, since it is through Azerbaijan  that Iran exports its products abroad. These relations are beneficial  for both Baku and Tehran. I think Aliyev will nevertheless try to  resist this pressure and continue his relations with Iran. Moreover,  an important project for the United States could be the creation of a  free economic zone in the Caspian region, "the expert said, adding  that the US interests in Azerbaijan are also conditioned by the  presence of energy resources in the country.  "Azerbaijani gas can  compete with Russian gas in terms of supplies to Europe. It was these  strategic issues that became the goal of Bolton's visit to the South  Caucasus," the political scientist said.

According to the expert, a certain pressure in connection with  relations with Iran is also being put on Armenia. "However, since  relations between Yerevan and Tehran are not strategic, as in the  case of Baku, the pressure is much less. Moreover, the main component  of relations between Armenia and Iran is economic, and it doesn't  worry the United States too much," The expert emphasized.

As for whether the US will put pressure on Armenia in connection with  the Karabakh issue, Safrastyan said that there are no prerequisites  for this. "It was absolutely not felt that the United States has a  different policy on the Karabakh issue than the other two countries  co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group," the expert emphasized.

In connection with the statement of Bolton about the refusal of  "historical patterns", the expert noted that probably the assistant  to the US president repeated the position of Turkey and Azerbaijan.  "Unlike the former administration of the US President, the current  administration does not care much about Armenian- Turkish relations.  The former administration tried to mediate and establish  Armenian-Turkish relations twice, however, both attempts failed. It  is clear that John Bolton did not investigate this issue and the  United States is unlikely to interfere in it ", Safrastyan concluded.

Meanwhile, Bolton's proposal to abandon the "historical patterns" had  a different interpretation. If in the political-expert circles of  Armenia this proposal was considered in the context of the  Armenian-Turkish relations and the Armenian Genocide issue, then  official Moscow saw in this a hint at the need to revise  Armenian-Russian relations. "Bolton, who visited Yerevan the other  day, publicly demanded that Armenia abandon the" historical cliche  "in its international relations. It was not a secret that it was a  traditional friendship with Russia," in the Russian Foreign Ministry  statement reads.