ArmInfo. The summit of the Caspian Five in Kazakhstan's Aktau, so "successfully" coinciding with the new development of the sanctions war against Iran, Russia, and now Turkey, has once again actualized the task of involving all the routes of the large North-South transit corridor, including the soonest use of Iran's transit opportunities for Armenia.
As you know, the heads of five Caspian states signed a convention on the legal status of the Caspian Sea, laying the foundation for turning the basin into one of the most effective nodes of the energy routes. Thus, Turkmenistan, with the adoption of the convention, expects to diversify its gas exports to Europe. Ashgabat hopes, with the adoption of this document, to solve the problem of the withdrawal of Turkmen gas to foreign markets by building the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline along the Caspian Sea and its connection to the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP). This gas pipeline provides for the supply of gas from Azerbaijan via Georgia to Turkey to the Greek border, where it will become the Trans Adriatic gas pipeline (TAP) towards South Europe.
According to the most optimistic forecasts, Azerbaijani natural gas will begin to flow through Europe via these pipelines in 2019-2020. According to available information, a similar project is being studied by Kazakhstan. The connection of two major gas players, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, to this project will further strengthen the economic and transit capabilities of Baku, and, as a result, will lead to an increase in its military budget with all the ensuing consequences: the use of the port of Olya in the Astrakhan region of Russia with the ports of the other four states can also lead to the activation of multimodal transportation, thus creating new routes linking Asia and Europe.
However, despite the fact that the five presidents agreed most of the issues, Iranian President Hasan Roukhani noted that the issue of delimitation remains a problem for Iran. Rouhani said that further negotiations are needed to resolve the issue of the division of the Caspian, although it remains unclear whether he spoke about 22 kilometers from the coastline, which are considered the territorial waters of the coastal state, or the conditional midline.
In the opinion of independent analysts, it is not by chance that the solution of the Caspian Sea problem is precisely these days, when the US is being pressed immediately in three directions, two of which are extremely important for Armenia - Russia and Iran, which are making efforts to mitigate the consequences American sanctions. Even the panic in the Turkish currency market caused by US sanctions can also have a negative impact on Armenia, for Ankara, despite the absence of diplomatic relations, is one of the ten largest trading partners of Yerevan. As for Iran, the United States in fact wants to cut it off from currency and major commodity markets to stop the growth of the political and military influence of the Islamic Republic on the countries of the region. It is important here that restrictive measures concern both the Iranian companies themselves and foreign firms that conduct business with Tehran. Sanctions will affect both Iran's energy sector and the operations of the Central Bank of this state, and, as a result, may negatively affect the projects implemented jointly with Armenia.
Armenia should actively use the available opportunities. Speech, first of all, not only about the importance of the speedy construction of its own route of the North-South motor transport corridor, but also the implementation of the initiative of Tehran to build a corridor between the Persian Gulf and the Black Sea. As early as November 23, 2016, Iran received the first cargo from Europe via Armenia. He arrived on a pilot basis to Iran from Germany through a new multimodal transit route connecting Iran and Europe through the Black Sea. In the future, it is planned that this route will be replaced by one that passes through the territory of Turkey. Nor should we dismiss Iran's Energy Minister Reza Ardakanian's statement about the beginning of negotiations on the supply of electricity to the Russian Federation through Armenia and Azerbaijan. "We started negotiations with Armenia and Azerbaijan on the possibility of supplying the Russian Federation with electricity," he said. According to him, for the Iranian energy sector it is important to connect to the European power supply networks, and Tehran has several ways to achieve this goal. "One option is to connect through our northern neighbors," he said.
It remains only hopes that in Yerevan they will not postpone this project to a "long box".