Thomas De Waal: New thinking is needed in the peace process on  Karabakh conflict settlement

ArmInfo. The new Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan took a tough stance on the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. British journalist, expert of the Carnegie  Foundation Thomas de Waal, expressed point of view in his article.

He stated that the stalled peace process on the conflict settlement  definitely needs a shake-up, but not too strong.

According to the British expert, Pashinyan's first statements on  Karabakh stirred the situation, as he spoke more like a man from the  crowd than a diplomat, saying that Karabakh is an "inseparable part"  of Armenia.

De Waal recalled that the first visit of the newly elected prime  minister, on May 9, took place in Nagorno-Karabakh, where he stressed  that Artsakh should be directly involved in the negotiation process.  "The tough position of the new prime minister may be conditioned by  the internal political situation." Pashinyan came after two Armenians  who fought in Karabakh in the 90s and led Armenia for 20 years.  "Clearly, Pashinyan feels the need to confirm his mandate to ensure  national security and convince the Karabakh Armenians that he is with  them, but he is probably also quite sincere, most Armenians share a  "no compromise" position, and moreover, in one of his interviews in  2016 Pashinyan stated that "there is no land for I am transferring to  Azerbaijan," the expert recalled in his article.

De Waal believes that the danger is that if the Armenian leader  openly declares the sovereignty of Karabakh and says that the lands  can not be returned, there are no questions for negotiations with  Baku, and both sides return to war. He added that the four-day April  war in 2016 is a gloomy reminder of how costly this war can be.

The analyst emphasizes that over the past 15 years the negotiations  have entered a state that one old diplomat called "Kabuki talks"  (Kabuki, the most famous type of classical Japanese theater art-Ed.),  When each side becomes in a pose and does enough to that OSCE  mediators work, but serious work is not done, as well as there is no  real progress. "The conflict went off the agenda in the United  States, although, fortunately, Trump's administration resisted the  temptation to abandon the mediation role and appointed a new  co-chairman from the United States, Andrew Schofer." However, the new  Armenian government with public legitimacy began to change this cozy  situation. Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, undoubtedly capable of aggressive  rhetoric, while he remains silent, only allowing his defense minister  to make typical bellicose statements for him. But for how long has  the President of Azerbaijan will remain silent", the expert inquired.

De Waal believes that during the electoral campaign, which may be  protracted, Pashinyan and his associates will not want to voice a  conciliatory approach, fearing that their patriotic powers will be  called into question. At the same time, he expressed the conviction  that many more months will pass before a new, consolidated policy of  Armenia regarding the conflict appears. "If the process survives in  the short term, a positive scenario is possible, a new thinking is  needed, which can be presented by the new Foreign Minister of Armenia  Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, who will replace the hyper-cautious Edward  Nalbandian." Mnatskanyan was the leading negotiator in negotiations  on the Association Agreement with the EU, which was terminated in  2013. The EU is one of several actors who can breathe life into this  process by playing a more active role in supporting the official  negotiators of the Minsk Group. conductive peace process needs to be  activated, but the new leaders of Armenia have to be careful in how  to use the legitimacy which they won on the streets of negotiation  process on Karabakh - a sensitive issue, and its collapse would only  lead to a new conflict", concluded the de Waal.