De Waal: With any resolution of the conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh will remain under Armenian control

ArmInfo. The risk of the resumption of hostilities, always remains, the English researcher of the Karabakh and other post-Soviet conflicts Thomas de Waal is convinced.

"The fact is that the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, of course, do not want war, who will risk and start such a dangerous conflict that can lead to mass deaths and destruction? But, on the other hand, the degree of conflict is very high - these are mutual threats, statements at the verbal level and a mass cluster of heavy weapons - artillery, aviation - on the line of contact. There is a very serious militarization. This means that the commanders at the front also have their weight - suddenly there is some volley of artillery, some serious violation of the ceasefire, he must quickly make a decision, maybe he does not have time to call Baku or Yerevan, and in this of course, there is a big risk, "de Waal said in an interview with Echo of the Caucasus.

The risk of the resumption of hostilities is quite serious, according to the expert, because the Karabakh conflict is not frozen. According to him, it would be better to pay more attention, make more efforts now than after some time, when suddenly the conflict will resume.

At the same time, he stated that there were, of course, serious attempts to resolve the conflict. "I think that Levon Ter-Petrosyan was ready for this, he had such a strategic calculation that Armenia will not develop until this conflict is resolved.I think Heydar Aliyev was also actually ready to resolve the conflict, but here two the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh is almost unresolved, because there are two opposite versions about the status of this territory, whether it will be part of Armenia or part of Azerbaijan, and it is very difficult, of course, to find a compromise here not only directs whether they solve this issue, but the society has its own opinion, and any leader, if he wants to resolve the conflict, should act rather cautiously.In 1998, Ter-Petrosyan, in deciding to take a rather bold step - the adoption of the next peace plan, - was practically overthrown ", - the analyst reminded.

To clarify whether the sides have any points of contact today, de Waal regretfully stated that the position is much worse than then, the space for maneuvers is less, and here the most acute and painful issue is that the Armenians control not only themselves Nagorno-Karabakh. "I think that everyone more or less understands that under any resolution of the conflict Nagorno-Karabakh will remain under the control of the Armenians, but here, too, the issue of the territories around Nagorno-Karabakh that were not part of Nagorno-Karabakh are the regions of Azerbaijan that are also under Armenian control Of course, Azerbaijan will never reconcile with the loss of these territories, where half a million Azerbaijanis, who are still refugees, lived, and on the other hand, the Armenian side will not give them away, until there are solid guarantees of safety I think that 20 years ago it was much easier to solve this issue than now, "the analyst concluded.