Arman Navasardyan: Aliyev`s decision to hold early presidential elections was not spontaneous

ArmInfo. Aliyev's decision to hold early presidential elections was not spontaneous. On February 9, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Ambassador Arman Navasardyan stated at a press conference.

"It is absolutely clear that it was well thought out, and Aliyev in this case was influenced by a number of foreign policy and internal political factors, the most important of which is an increase in the price of oil on the international market," the expert explained. As Navasardian noted, another important reason for holding early elections was the fact that the opposition has recently raised its head in Azerbaijan. The expert noted that, of course, at the moment the opposition in Azerbaijan is weak enough, however, they still had some chances to compete, and by a sudden decision Aliyev caught the opposition representatives unawares. In addition, as the ambassador noted, the situation inside Azerbaijan has recently become quite tense, and the further, the stronger will be the discontent in the country. At the same time, Navasardian noted, there is a point of view that after Aliyev is re-elected president, he immediately deploys military actions in the zone of the Karabakh conflict, thereby raising his image in the country. However, the expert noted that this is unlikely, since at the moment for military operations the situation is not at all favorable, and in this particular case, game is not worth the candle. As for foreign policy factors, the expert stated that the main one is that the AR simultaneously cooperates with both the US and Russia.

However, since relations between the two countries have been heating up more and more recently, Aliyev wants to gain time and understand how to continue his maneuvers in both directions. "If Aliyev loses support for Russia, his position in the region will be significantly weakened, if the president of the Republic of Azerbaijan breaks off with the United States, he will lose a number of benefits." Thus, Aliyev will gain time to build a strategy on how to continue his relations with both countries at the same time, " "Navasardian explained. Another important factor, he said, is that Turkey's main ally Turkey is now in a difficult situation in connection with the military invasion of Africa. "The Turkish authorities planned to carry out this operation as soon as possible, however, they did not succeed, and now a wave of discontent has risen in this country, and the situation at the front is not encouraging. Thus, Erdogan wants to somehow correct his position, wants Aliyev, too, is drawn into the war, but the latter understands that it is not profitable for him in this particular case, and the pre-election race is a good excuse for not participating in the Turkish adventure, "Navasardian said. And the last foreign policy factor, which, according to the expert, led to the decision to hold early elections is the relationship of Azerbaijan with Iran. "Despite the fact that relations between the states have somewhat warmed recently, Tehran can not forgive Baku for its active cooperation with Israel, and Aliyev can not refuse military-strategic cooperation with Israel." In addition, the Iranians also did not forget the flirting of Baku with the Saudi Arabia, which is one of the ardent opponents of Iran, and if Aliyev now holds the elections, it is possible that in some way he will be able to bring down the passions. Thus, all these problems coupled with the result that Aliyev decided to hold early elections, "the expert said. In the end, he also addressed the visit of the Minsk mediators to the region, assuring that there is no need to pin any special hopes on this visit, since the talks will remain in a preserved state for a long time.