Markedonov: Russia has made certain conclusions after the April escalation in the zone of the Karabakh conflict

ArmInfo. The balance of power in the region has never been violated. The Russian analyst, expert on the South Caucasus Sergey Markedonov, expressed such an opinion on November 3 in Yerevan in a conversation with journalists on a question of ArmInfo.

"There is an opinion that the balance of power was violated until 2016, but it is wrong .I would like to emphasize one important circumstance, namely, that we became hostages to the April war of 2016.  Meanwhile, as the bar of violence was rising regularly until 2016 and here it is not that Russia sold weapons to Azerbaijan, although there is room for controversy, but this is second time, there will be no Russian weapons, there will be Turkish or Israeli weapons, there is a fact of request for weapons, the fact of wanting to solve the issue by force is also present. Today you need to think like a min to mitigate these risks, and for this it is necessary that the countries mediators communicate with each other at least not as enemies," the Russian expert believes.

According to him, of course, in Armenia, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is viewed as an absolute priority.  But, in his opinion, the Karabakh conflict is part of the unresolved problems of European security in a global sense. Markedonov believes that today in international security there are practically no game rules, joint mechanisms for finding ways out of conflicts, and unilateral decisions. The expert believes that it is this bad background that does not allow solving existing problems, to push for a compromise.  "Undoubtedly, the point of contact will be found, but it is not yet clear when." Obviously, there will not be a return to 1988, as well as a return to the Donbas in 2014. There will be a situation of a certain exchange of territories, according to the Madrid Principles, a matter only as volumes from the parties to the conflict will not work, because non of them have the appropriate resources," Markedonov said.

At the same time, referring to the Russian-Azerbaijani relations, the expert noted that Azerbaijan is Russia's neighbor on the Dagestan section of the border, and if Moscow does not build any constructive agenda with Baku, Turkey will be on the Samur River, which does not correspond to the Russian interests. "Turkey is happy with the complicated situation, we have certain considerations, which seem to be constructive, but we have contradictions on many points, and after Russia lost many mechanisms of influence on Georgia, it is problematic to make the second Georgia in the Caucasus, that Russia and Azerbaijan have full strategic understanding, there are quite a lot of discrepancies, for example, Baku would like Russia to play in this issue simply in favor of Azerbaijan, which Russia does not want to do because its task is to promote its own interests, and not Baku's assistance in the solution of some goals," the political scientist believes.

Speaking about Russia's relations with Armenian strategic ally, Markedonov expressed the conviction that Yerevan is getting quite a lot from Moscow today. "This is a discount for weapons deals, and the base in Gyumri, which, believe me, quite restrains Turkey. Without 102nd military base, I do not know how Ankara would behave in this or that situation. The prospect of joining NATO is illusory - while Turkey is there, this road is closed, and speaking of the European Union, I would like to say that this is not an altruistic organization - it is not Greenpeace. The EU views Azerbaijan as an energy partner, it is also part of the Eastern Partnership.

The choice will not be made between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In addition, in the new framework agreement Armenia-EU there is a point on the closure of Metsamor NPP, which gives 45% of all energy in the republic. Let us say, it is done, and then how and who will fill the gap. Turkish and Azeri lobbying effort can be seen here too," he said. Markedonov believes that it is difficult to find an alternative vector of Russia quickly, but an additional one may be found.

According to him, Armenia, as an independent state, certainly has interests that do not always coincide with Russia, and it is interested in expanding contacts both in the West and in the East. However, he is convinced that today there is no real alternative to the alliance with Russia. "Relations between the allies are not built as between two lovers, it is not about love, but about interests. And the interests coincide-well, they do not coincide-they will look for ways to improve relations. From my point of view, the April escalation ignited certain "red spots" in Moscow. If officials were restrained on this topic, this does not mean that there was not a fairly rigid analysis of the flights on the sidelines," Markedonov said, adding that weapons were sold to Azerbaijan on the basis of certain informal arrangements that this will not be used to fuel a conflict. According to him, fueling the conflict is not directly beneficial to Russia, it raises many unpleasant questions. "It is possible that in future deliveries some nomenclature will be reduced," Markedonov noted.

In conclusion, he added that Russia made certain conclusions after the April escalation.