Friday, November 3 2017 15:38

ArmInfo. The upcoming  meeting between Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Moscow  in mid-November on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement is another round  of talks aimed at saving the negotiation process. On November 3,  Sergey Markedonov, a Russian analyst, expert on the South Caucasus,  told a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter in the margins of his 3rd  international scientific and practical forum "Problems of National  Security in the Context of Globalization and Integration Processes"  in Yerevan.

According to him, such an attempt was also the meeting of the heads  of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Geneva. He recalled that the idea of  organizing the meeting arose after the July aggravation of the  situation, and while they reached an agreement on a meeting in  October, another escalation occurred.  "The Karabakh conflict is  developing like a pendulum, every new round of negotiations is  accompanied by another violation of the ceasefire, there is a great  danger," the political scientist said.

Referring to the developments on the settlement of the Karabakh  issue, the expert expressed the conviction that they are all already  represented. Markedonov considers illusions of the opinion that it is  possible to find something new that has not been proposed for these  twenty-odd years. According to him, everything that has already been  suggested, including, and any exotic type of Aland Islands. "Two  things are actually discussed today: the status of the former  autonomy and the status of the areas outside the NKA, since at that  time the region fought for unification with Armenia and belonging to  the Armenian world, and the adjacent areas together with the  Azerbaijani population did not fight for it. There are two nodes that  need to be unleashed, but many questions arise, including who will  begin to unleash this site and under what guarantees in the absence  of trust, "the Russian expert said.

At the same time, the political scientist believes that if there had  been no confrontational potential between Russia and the West, then  it is possible that Moscow and Washington would come to some  compromise by putting pressure on the conflicting parties. "But there  is no such intention on the part of the West and Russia, given the  confrontation and the fact that this issue is not absolutely a  priority for them." To put it bluntly, well, they do not shoot much  and well, "Markedonov said.

At the same time, the Russian expert is convinced that there is no  need to expect a breakthrough at the November talks, since in  addition to the above issues, there are many other problems,  including the perception of society. The Russian political scientist  also positively assessed the ongoing meetings, noting that if there  were not even such meetings, there would be a war. "To date, the  shaky status quo is the best that is, especially given the  unwillingness of the parties to compromise and the absence of  substantive negotiations since 2011, after the Kazan summit," the  expert said.

At the same time, he believes that political conflicts can last for a  long time. He stated that from the side of Western experts an  illusion was created that conflicts in the post-Soviet space are  quite simple if they are internationalized and Russia's dominant role  is removed. However, according to him, the Karabakh conflict is an  example where Russia does not have a dominant role, although there is  internationalization and the OSCE Minsk Group, to which it belongs.  According to him, there are many conflicts where the role of Russia  is minimal, or it is not at all, however, they do not find their  solution.