ArmInfo.Armenia and Azerbaijan are ready to go to confrontation over Nagorno-Karabakh, experts of the International Crisis Group believe.
According to the report published on the organization's website, a year after Nagorno-Karabakh's April 2016 violent flare-up, Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to war than at any point since the 1994 ceasefire. Political and security conditions that prompted the April 2016 escalation have become more acute and both sides claim a new wave of escalation already has begun. Since mid-January 2017, deadly incidents involving the use of heavy artillery and anti-tank weapons have occurred with varying degrees of intensity; May saw a significant increase, including reports of self-guided rockets and missiles used near densely populated areas along the Line of Contact (LoC). The settlement process has stalled, making the use of force tempting, at least for tactical purposes; today, both sides - backed by mobilised constituencies - appear ready for confrontation. These tensions could develop into larger- scale conflict, leading to significant civilian casualties and possibly prompting the main regional powers to intervene. Russia, France and the U.S. need to put their differences aside and apply concerted high-level pressure on the parties to unlock the current paralysis and mitigate risks of renewed violence.
At the same time, analysts note that the Vienna and St. Petersburg meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, organized after the April escalation and claimed at least 200 lives, did not yield the expected result. The ICG notes that the leaders refused to resume negotiations, preferring visits to the front line and voicing militaristic statements. At the same time, it is noted that the past year has revealed the fragility of efforts to resolve the conflict, which is now at an impasse. "The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan do not trust each other, they do not want to take into account each other's interests. Between them, as well as government officials and military leaders, there is no effective channel for cooperation. As a result, there is such a situation, at any time, everything can get out of control at any time. This is also facilitated by the opinion formed in the two societies that the Karabakh conflict should be settled by any means, even by war, that a new war is inevitable," the report says.
It is also stressed that the settlement of any conflict presupposes mutual concessions, which the parties are not ready for, Baku began to demand more aggressively the international community's occupation of its territories by the Armenians, as well as the application of sanctions by the West, tries to restrict the activities of international actors in Nagorno-Karabakh, impedes visits to Artsakh and the conduct of economic activity there, at the same time, trying to put serious pressure on Armenia. In its turn, Armenia stated that the answer would be adequate. "In the deteriorating security environment, Armenia did not show interest in discussions to ease the situation and began implementing the concept of "Nation-Army", which is likely to militarize society even more. In turn, de facto Nagorno Karabakh even declared its readiness, in case of an attack, to go deep into the densely populated territory of Azerbaijan along the contact line in order to obtain a new security belt and strengthen its position in the forthcoming negotiations. As tensions increase, international mediation is stalled. Russia remains the most influential foreign player, however its participation in this issue is ambiguous. In the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia has a leading role, but at the same time it sells weapons to Azerbaijan and Armenia more than other countries, and the latter are convinced that Moscow is more interested in expanding its interests in the region than in settling the conflict," the report says. According to the conclusion of the Crisis Group, the main task of the mediators against the backdrop of continuing confrontation should be the following: to ensure a permanent link between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, to force Yerevan and Baku to soften positions and discard rhetoric: "They must force both countries to come to an agreement in connection with the adoption of urgent measures to restore confidence and security. It also includes an increase in the number of persons monitoring from the OSCE, the initiation of investigative mechanisms with the OSCE leadership and the establishment of permanent contact between high-ranking officers on both sides on both sides. At the same time, the sides should hold constant negotiations on unresolved issues, including the return of areas adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, ensuring international security and the return of internally displaced persons."
ICG (HQ in Brussels), is an independent, non commercial, multinational organization, uniting about 80 employees on 5 continents. The organization analyses situation in the field and implements effective human rights protection activities aimed at preventing and holding deadly conflicts. On the basis of the information and assessments made in the field, ICG makes analytical reports, making practical recommendations addressed to key international actors making political decisions.