Forecast: Syria will have the fate of Iraq in the best-case scenario  and the fate of Libya in the worst-case one     

ArmInfo.Syria will have the fate of Iraq in the best-case scenario and the fate of Libya in the worst-case one, because unfortunately Syria will not remain a single  country, Alexander Skakov, coordinator of the working group on the Caucasus and Central Asia at the Russian Institute of Oriental Studies, has told ArmInfo.        

"Certainly, Bashar al-Assad will stay in Damascus. His supporters  will control Aleppo, the Mediterranean coast. Part of the territories  adjacent to the Turkish border will remain under Turkey's control.  The territories inhabited by Kurds will gain de facto independence.  The ISIS will be finally destroyed, however, it will be destroyed  only officially, and it will remain a real tool of global policy.  Even if the ISIS is destroyed in Syria and Iraq, the militants will  move to the Central Asia countries, for instance," he says.       

Skakov does not rule out the possibility that certain territories  will remain under control of the Syrian opposition, whose destiny is  being now negotiated between the regional and global actors. However,  in any case Syria will remain a sovereign state only formally, he  notes.    On December 20, Russia, Turkey and Iran adopted a joint statement on  coordinated actions aimed at reviving political process in war-torn  Syria during talks in Moscow. "It is our common view that there is no  military solution to the Syrian crisis," Lavrov said at a joint press  conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Iranian  Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. According to Lavrov, the  statement reaffirms the respect of sovereignty, independence and  territorial integrity of Syria as a multi-ethnic, democratic and  secular state. The foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey noted  the importance of the expansion of the ceasefire regime in Syria  following talks in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov  said. "The ministers agreed on the importance of expansion of the  ceasefire regime, the unimpeded access of humanitarian aid and the  free movement of the civilian population across Syria. We express our  readiness to contribute to the development of the agreement being  drafted, negotiations on which are being held between the Syrian  government and the opposition, and to become its guarantors," Lavrov  told reporters.