ArmInfo.Syria will have the fate of Iraq in the best-case scenario and the fate of Libya in the worst-case one, because unfortunately Syria will not remain a single country, Alexander Skakov, coordinator of the working group on the Caucasus and Central Asia at the Russian Institute of Oriental Studies, has told ArmInfo.
"Certainly, Bashar al-Assad will stay in Damascus. His supporters will control Aleppo, the Mediterranean coast. Part of the territories adjacent to the Turkish border will remain under Turkey's control. The territories inhabited by Kurds will gain de facto independence. The ISIS will be finally destroyed, however, it will be destroyed only officially, and it will remain a real tool of global policy. Even if the ISIS is destroyed in Syria and Iraq, the militants will move to the Central Asia countries, for instance," he says.
Skakov does not rule out the possibility that certain territories will remain under control of the Syrian opposition, whose destiny is being now negotiated between the regional and global actors. However, in any case Syria will remain a sovereign state only formally, he notes. On December 20, Russia, Turkey and Iran adopted a joint statement on coordinated actions aimed at reviving political process in war-torn Syria during talks in Moscow. "It is our common view that there is no military solution to the Syrian crisis," Lavrov said at a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. According to Lavrov, the statement reaffirms the respect of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Syria as a multi-ethnic, democratic and secular state. The foreign ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey noted the importance of the expansion of the ceasefire regime in Syria following talks in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. "The ministers agreed on the importance of expansion of the ceasefire regime, the unimpeded access of humanitarian aid and the free movement of the civilian population across Syria. We express our readiness to contribute to the development of the agreement being drafted, negotiations on which are being held between the Syrian government and the opposition, and to become its guarantors," Lavrov told reporters.