Sale of part of cross-country gas pipeline to Azerbaijan may become  disaster waiting to happen 

ArmInfo.The statement made by the new head of  Gazprom Armenia that there are no risks regarding the Georgian  government's possible sale of 25% of shares of the main gas line to  Azerbaijan's SOCAR is nothing more than putting on a good face, UN  Expert on Energy Ara Marjanyan stated in a talk to ArmInfo's  reporter. 

"The first step is the hardest. It is enough to purchase 25% of  shares first and later the controlling interest in the Georgian  company", he said. According to the expert the gas pipeline may  become property of Armenia's tactical enemy-Azerbaijan. Marjanyan  recalled that this is not a new problem-yet 3-4 years ago the  Georgian authorities put the issue on the agenda, however the  solution of it was postponed then.  "However, there are forces in  Georgia that are interested in such a development. Armenia needs to  use its leverages on the Georgian authorities at the same time  searching ways for mutually beneficial cooperation.  In any case if  the sale takes place it will mean Georgia's indirect participation in  energy blockade of Armenia", the expert thinks. 

To recall, Gazprom Armenia CJSC Director General Hrant Tadevosyan in  talk to ArmInfo's correspondent pointed at the fact the problem is  not so much technical as a political one. "If we consider this issue  in the context of civilized international norms there should be no  problems. Moreover, the fact should be considered that both Armenia  and Georgia, as well as other countries have a number of  international obligations and have signed certain international  agreements and contracts", Tadevosyan stressed.  According to  independent experts this statement is puzzling as the issue of  selling property cannot be a subject of international documents. And  if SOCAR purchases a cross-country gas line no one can forbid it to  use it in its sole discretion. And a lot of reasons can be found for  suspending supply of gas to Armenia for instance- repair work of gas  distribution network or "unexpected incidents". Many people have  already forgotten about numerous cases of blowing up the gas pipeline  in the beginning of 1990ies during the war in Karabakh. We can face a  similar situation today. 

The specialists of the gas sector think that from technical point of  view Armenia's gas transporting system has flow capacity of smaller  pressure. The system is designed for 55 atm, while Georgia's gas  pipeline system works at no higher then 33-34 atm and in order to  increase pressure investments should be made.  Possibly, the Georgian  government seeks to sell shares with the very aim to found investor.  However, it unlikely that SOCAR company will invest in the  modernization of a gas pipeline, though which Armenia receives fuel  from Russia. If economic factor prevails over political one, the same  SOCAR company could construct a gas and petroleum pipelines to Turkey  via Armenia's territory. However, no such intentions are voiced by  Azerbaijan within TANAP program. On the contrary, Armenia's economic  blockade and its exclusion from any cross-border projects has become  the main line of Baku's economic diplomacy. That is why strategic  risks in case of sale of gas pipeline will increase several-fold,  considering that everything is possible, even a war. This means that  there are serious reasons for concern and we live not on the Mars but  in a region, which has trouble spots that can develop into cruel wars  without any rules, least of all international ones. 

To note, Armenia's Prime Minister Karen Karapetyan also does not see  any grounds for concern related to possibility of sale of 25% of  shares of the cross-country gas pipeline by the Georgian government.  According to Karapetyan as of now the matter concerns to intentions  only. "But even if the Georgian government adopts such a decision I  do not see any risks for Armenia", the Prime Minister noted adding  that 25% do not have decisive importance. However, if more shares are  sold risks will grow and in this case we will hold negotiations with  friendly Georgia", Karen Karapetyan stressed. 

To note, earlier Georgian mass media were informing that as soon as  there are favorable conditions the Georgian government will place 25%  of shares of "Petroleum and Gas Corporation" and "Georgian Railway"  on the stock market. Earlier Azerbaijan's State Petroleum Company  (SOCAR) was stating about its intention to buy Georgian pipeline. Gas  from Russia is being supplied to Armenia via this very pipeline and  naturally decision to sell part of it is a reason for concerns for  the Armenian side, Georgian mass media wrote.