ArmInfo. The advanced Russian-made Iskander-M missile systems are in the inventory of the Armenian Armed Forces and all the remarks that the systems are on the books of the 102nd Russian military base are speculation or just professional ignorance, Armenian political expert Sergey Minasyan has told ArmInfo, when commenting on the Armenian media reports that part of the military hardware to be demonstrated at the military parade in Armenia on the occasion of Armenia's Independence Day is on the books of the 102nd Russian military base.
"Probably, part of the military hardware has been transferred from the 102nd Russian military base deployed in Armenia. Nevertheless, that military hardware belongs to the Armed Forces of Armenia," Minasyan says, stressing that the stormy debates particularly concern the Iskander-M missile systems. He notes that these systems have never belonged to the 102nd Russian military base. Nor have they been supplied to Armenia under the 200 mln USD loan agreement.
"Iskander-M systems were delivered to Armenia long ago and they will officially be demonstrated at the September 21 military parade timed to the 25th anniversary of Armenia's Independence. Moreover, these systems were in the inventory of the Armenian side long before the April 2016 events. Like other Armenian systems, these systems fit into the defense logic of the country and they had their own influence on the course of these events. Let's not forget that the April escalation did not develop into a large-scale war. The Azerbaijani army used the surprise effect, however, it did not resort to large-scale shelling of Nagorno- Karabakh territories or important state or military facilities," Minasyan says.
The expert thinks that one of the reasons was apparently Azerbaijan's awareness of the fact that there were Tochka-U, SCUD and Iskander-M systems in the inventory of the Armenian Armed Forces.
"It is another matter that Iskander-M is a tactical system. Nevertheless, in the context of Armenia, Azerbaijan and the regional security system of the South Caucasus, one can consider these systems to be strategic ones, which are meant to settle strategic tasks. It was not necessary to apply Iskander-M to implement the goals set in April 2016," he says.
Minasyan points out that military parades on the occasion of Independence Day anniversary have become a tradition. "The previous parade was organized at the events dedicated to the 20th anniversary of Armenia's Independence. So, speculations are irrelevant. On the other hand, parades are a tool of military, military- political and psychological deterrence," Minasyan says.
Meanwhile, following the demonstration of Iskander-M systems in Republic Square of Yerevan, Russian expert Alexander Khramchikhin said that these systems are on the books of the 102nd Russian military base, not in the inventory of the Armenian armed forces, and that the decision whether to use them or not will be taken by Moscow, not Yerevan. "The deployment of several Iskander-M systems in the 102nd Russian military base is not directed against Azerbaijan, because the base in Gyumri defends the Armenian-Turkish border," the expert said.
He said that if the military operations are restricted to Karabakh and if Turkey does not interfere with the conflict, then Russia will also keep aloof from any actions. Khramchikhin is convinced that the resumption of armed hostilities in the Karabakh conflict zone is almost inevitable, because the sides' positions remain mutually exclusive and neither Russia nor any other superpowers can order Baku and Yerevan not to fight.
For his part, Igor Korotchenko, another Russian military expert, editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, has told ArmInfo that the presence of the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia with its up-to- date military hardware is an important element of the republic's security and confirms Russia's obligations as an ally.
"Armenia's CSTO membership demonstrates that Yerevan will not remain face to face with external threats and that such a powerful organization as CSTO will be implementing its allied obligations to defend the partners against external challenges and threats," he says.
To recall, under the agreement on provision of a 200 mln USD loan to Armenia, the Armenian armed forces will acquire "Smerch" multiple artillery rocket systems with ammunition, "Igla-S" surface-to-air missile systems, "Avtobaza-M" passive signals-intelligence systems, TOS-1A "Solntsepyok" flame throwers, "Tigr" all-terrain infantry mobility vehicles, "Konkurs-M" anti-tank missile systems, RPG-26 anti-tank rocket launchers, KamAZes, as well as communications equipment and engineering equipment. The agreement of Russia's concessional loan was signed in 2015. Armenia will start repaying the loan at the annual interest of 3% in 2018 in terms of Russian rubles within 10 years. The prepayment will total just 10%.
To note, on September 21 a military parade marking the 25th anniversary of Armenia's independence will be held in Yerevan. The parade will feature all the up-to-date military hardware and equipment on the books of the Armenian Armed Forces.