"Great Peace Treaty" Baku’s Attempt of "Constructive Retreat" from Madrid Principles

 May 12 marked the 21^st anniversary of the ceasefire agreement. Over the past two years the ceasefire has been breached more frequently than throughout the previous 19 years. What do you think has changed so much in the conflicting countries and in the geopolitical situation in the region in 2014-2015? 

Azerbaijan seeks to break balance of power to get concessions from Armenia and NKR. Azerbaijan has increased its military spending 25-fold over the last ten years to break the balance of power and get as many concessions from Armenia and NKR as possible. In 2015 alone, the military budget of Azerbaijan will account for 18% of its total budget. However, experience shows that Azerbaijan's stakes on 'military diplomacy' and artificial escalation of tension in the conflict zone are unpromising. It appears that in Baku they have not realized yet that the language of the military blackmail and threats of force are inadmissible to the Armenian parties. The Armed Forces of Armenia and Artsakh are powerful enough to meet the emerging challenges. As to the geopolitical situation in the region, the Russia-West confrontation, the Iranian nuclear program-related issues, and the war in the Middle East have either direct or indirect influence on the situation in the South Caucasus. All those factors create uncertainly, which does not contribute to the peace process.

Is there an alternative or a need to sign a new agreement to settle the situation around the Karabakh conflict? 

The final peaceful settlement of the problem is of much significance to the peoples of the region and the international actors. It is also important to find the formula to maintain the regional stability before signing the peace agreement. This problem is becoming more and more relevant amid the escalating tension in the Karabakh conflict zone. Azerbaijan's official policy that admits the use of force methods to settle political problems has an extremely negative effect on the peace process. In the meantime, such a line of conduct is undermining all the peacemaking initiatives and threatens the regional security. 

Therefore, it is first of all necessary to make Azerbaijan take constructive steps. There is need for legal refusal of the three conflicting parties to use force or threat of force. Such a document with a big peacemaking potential will open up broad opportunities for peaceful transformation of the conflict. 

Are there necessary conditions or preconditions for a real Big Peaceful Treaty on Karabakh - something Baku regularly insists on? Or do you think there is no alternative to the status quo?  

Baku's proposed discussion of "great peace treaty" is just an attempt of "constructive retreat" from the Madrid principles. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov has repeatedly suggested to mediators discussing the so-called "great peace treaty" thus passing by the other preliminary agreements. There should be relevant preconditions for such discussions. The exclusion of military scenario of the developments is to be one of the indispensable prerequisites. The Azerbaijani side should prove its willingness for peace in fact rather than in word.

Today Azerbaijan has only demonstrated war indicators. Azerbaijan keeps acquiring armaments and military equipment, the authorities have forbidden journalists to visit border districts of Azerbaijan, the government-controlled media keep implementing anti-Armenian propaganda, Azerbaijani civil activists are reprised, etc.   Since the previous summer Azerbaijan has launched sabotage and reconnaissance activities - in fact waging "sabotage war". They have been using large-caliber weapons, grenade dispensers and mortars against the NKR Defence Army.

Contrary to popular belief, preserving a status quo does not comply with the NKR's long-term interests.  The situation is to be gradually changed towards the positive direction and the transformation of fragile "neither war nor peace" situation towards stable peace.  Azerbaijan's actions towards changing the status quo are of destructive character."

The Iranian analysts and experts have repeatedly voiced an aspiration to considerably expand the political and economic presence of Iran in the South Caucasus. The matter also concerns Iran’s involvement in the Karabakh peace process. How would you assess these prospects?

Well, improvement of the Iran-West relations is in favor of the South Caucasus, as it may open good prospects in the economic sector, first. As to Iran’s involvement in the Karabakh peace process, it is unlikely. All the three parties to the conflict must give their consent to the mediation of a country. Despite the criticism of the OSCE Minsk Group’s efforts, Stepanakert, Yerevan, and Baku are not going to refuse from that format. The OSCE MG co-chair-countries still manage to maintain the platform of the dialogue in the Karabakh peace process, despite the serious discrepancies over some very important issues.

International observers have qualified the May 3 parliamentary elections in Karabakh as legitimate, democratic and transparent. Does the establishment of legitimate state power institutions in Artsakh hinder or does it contribute to the resolution of the Karabakh conflict? Do you think Stepanakert should become a full-fledged party to the conflict?         

The elections in Artsakh were held at a high level given that a big number of parties took part in the elections. There was a high turnout. The parliamentary elections in Artsakh were competitive and all the parties have acknowledged the election results. Nevertheless, the parliamentary and other elections in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic are not directly related to the peace process. They are more related to the democratic arrangement of the interior life of the NKR. This right of the Artsakh citizens is recognized by the international mediators and observers. I am sure that the presence of efficient state institutions and legitimate state power enjoying public confidence will have a positive effect on the peace process and will contribute to restoration of its full trilateral format.