Forecast: Azerbaijan's transformation into an openly hostile state will complete formation of Ankara-Baku- Tbilisi anti-Russian configuration

Azerbaijan's transformation into an openly hostile state will complete the formation of the Ankara-Baku-Tbilisi anti-Russian configuration, 
which is still experiencing internal discrepancies, Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov has told ArmInfo.     

"After recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Moscow lost many levers of influence on Georgia.  Moscow cannot afford getting 
involved in hostility with Baku and Ankara will certainly take advantage of it. After that we may face the risks of getting 
additional points of instability in Dagestan. Therefore, having come across the April war in Karabakh, Moscow keeps looking for balance 
between Armenia and Azerbaijan," he said.      

In this light, the analyst points out that despite the seeming closeness of the stands of Ankara, Baku and Tbilisi, one cannot 
consider them as absolutely identical. The United States and the European Union strongly criticize the authoritarian methods of Baku. 
In this context, Azerbaijan considers Russia as a counterweight to the West and as an additional source of international legitimization 
of its ruling regime.  So, Markedonov thinks Baku is unready to link its foreign political line to Ankara. 

Markedonov thinks that the West, which supports geopolitical and energy pluralism, is not interested in strengthening Turkey and its 
Eurasian ambitions. 

At the same time, the analyst thinks one should not exclude Iran from the Caucasus equation. Iran is conducting an independent line. In 
addition, Iran is the only force to criticize the updated Madrid Principles of the Karabakh settlement process and it believes that 
the given problem, like the other conflicts, should be settled without involvement of any foreign non-regional actors. 

In the expert's opinion, Tehran thinks possible involvement of Turkey on Azerbaijan's side in the unfreezing of the conflict threatens 
Tehran's interests, because Iran does not want more active military or diplomatic interference of the US or the EU, including through 
peacekeeping operations. 

"Azerbaijan shows clear and consistent interest in normalization of relations with Iran. The normalization of relations with the West and 
the lifting of the sanctions open up new opportunities for Iran in the Caucasus. Other actors - including Moscow and Ankara - cannot 
neglect this fact," the analyst says.