Forecast: Recognition of Nagorno Karabakh Republic by Armenia will create fundamentally new political situation around Karabakh conflict

Recognition of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic by Armenia will create a fundamentally new political situation around the Karabakh conflict, Manvel Sargsyan, Director of the ACNIS Armenian Center for National and International Studies, told ArmInfo.

Both the Armenian public and political elite have began comprehending this, he says. Sargsyan is sure that NKR must be recognized without linking that important political step to anything. "Unreasonable arguments like it may damage the negotiations or trigger a new war are groundless, at least because we have arrived at war without recognizing the NKR," the political analyst says.

In this light, the analyst says the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are unable to do anything and they have nothing new to suggest, while their old proposals proved inefficient too. According to Sargsyan, either the mediators have taken a purposeful stand, or they really have nothing to propose the people.  Sargsyan says the meeting of the Russian, Iranian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in Baku after the ceasefire in Karabakh, and the extraordinary visit of Prime Minister Medvedev to Baku that followed it, was the key international event. 

He believes that the arrangements made in Baku are extremely important considering that after the "four- day war" Baku's policy towards Tehran and Moscow has become distinct. 

"The chill in Azerbaijan's attitude towards Turkey, which actively supported Baku and incited it to continue the aggression against Karabakh, is quite evident. Ankara has found itself aside of the post-war political processes. I think it is a very important political event able to determine the geopolitical distribution of force in the period after the 'four-day' war," the analyst said.