Armen Martirosyan: Hovik Abrahamyan lacks resources that would let him compete with Serzh Sargsyan

The most popular domestic political topic in Armenia is the discussion on the amendments to the Electoral Code. Why do the authorities need a new Electoral Code given that the previous one did not hinder the large-scale electoral fraud?      

I think though the current Electoral Code regulates quite many issues, the intrinsic need has arisen to reform this Code following the adoption of the rigged Constitution. For instance, the Electoral Code of the Netherlands consists of 10 pages only, while the new Electoral Code of Armenia has more than 200 pages. The vote tabulation provision in the Dutch Electoral Code is restricted to one sentence - "the votes are counted", while the Armenian Electoral Code dedicates pages to that. Nevertheless, no one is displeased with the elections in the Netherlands, unlike Armenia.  In other words, all these accurate and detailed provisions of the Armenian Electoral Code do not work because the Armenian authorities regularly rig the election results and the electoral fraud is ideological rather than technical. Under the new conditions, the authorities need new guaranteed mechanisms to retain grip on power. Shamefully defeated by other political forces during the elections, the authorities were able to retain grip on power due to large-scale fraud. The power camp itself admits that 92% of the Armenian voters said "no" to the constitutional amendments. Under such conditions, elaboration of mechanisms to ensure the required election outcome without using violence has become an intrinsic need for the authorities. So, the new Electoral Code is first of all meant to legitimize the electoral fraud.

Don’t you think the debates in the 4+4+4 format play into the authorities’ hands by imitating a consensus based on a dialogue among the authorities, the opposition and the civil society and legitimizing the future electoral fraud?    

Earlier the international community allowed the Armenian authorities to imitate a dialogue with the opposition, legitimizing the unlawfulness during the elections. Now the situation is different. It is the western partners that demand updating the Electoral Code based on consensus. The OSCE/ODIHR for the first time stressed the need to publish the names of the citizens who went to the polls in order to prevent multiple voting. Head of the EU Delegation to Armenia Piotr Switalski, in turn, voices proposals, which have never been made by his predecessors before. Today one cannot speak of legitimization of electoral fraud. But this may happen if the talks on the Electoral Code transform into a long-term dead-end talk show. I hope no such a thing will happen and the opposition together with the civil society representatives will be able to shortly achieve specific results regarding all the 5 controversial provisions of the future Electoral Code. At the same time, the street protest actions along with cooperation with international partners remain the most efficient method to influence the power. In this case, the authorities are likely to implement these 5 demands. This will make it possible to control the process of elections and to enhance the public confidence in electoral processes in Armenia.   

Do you think Heritage will receive seats in the 2017 Parliament? 

Taking into consideration the society's apathy related to political processes, I can state that the Heritage is in the best position among the political parties. Our party is one of the few parties in Armenia that continues demonstrating adherence to principles, does not make deal with the authorities for getting a place near the feeder and continues to actively confront it. Due to all these factors we hope for voters' sympathy.

Yes, but the facts you have mentioned are leaving Heritage on the sidelines of the Republican “quotas” of parliamentary seats in 2017…

If Heritage participated in political processes with due regard for the quotation mechanisms of the Republicans, the party would never be represented either in the parliament or in the Council of Elders of Yerevan, for example. In this light, I think that in case more or less fair elections are held the Heritage party will be represented quite largely in the new parliament. If the upcoming elections are held the same way as the previous ones, the party will still be represented in the parliament with certain difficulties.

The Bright Armenia Party is a vivid example of transformation of the civil activists into a political force. It appears that this new pro-western force will most likely enter the 2017 Parliament under the notorious mechanism of quotas. Why do the Republicans need it?

Much to my regret, the mechanism of quotation has existed for quite a long time in Armenia since 1995. Since that year no normal elections have been held in the country, except the parliamentary elections of 1999. Today I do not care much about what party will be included in the future fraud plan being designed by the authorities. I am only concerned with the problems that our country faces. I do not think the civil society is actively being involved in politics, though it may become a reality in case of radical changes in the country. Nevertheless, I welcome the active steps of the civil society. Given that the activists took part in the process of constitutional reforms, they witnessed the large-scale fraud. I can say that the Republicans have very warm relations with a certain segment of the civil sector and they can launch that segment at a favorable moment. But I prefer to speak about the real NGOs. The real civil activeness is one of the prerequisites of power shift in Armenia. We should achieve it despite the authorities’ attempts to blur the political field. Luckily, our people already know how to tell the true oppositionists and civil activists from those playing on the authorities’ side.

There is half a year left before the parliamentary elections but the main forces to run in the elections are already obvious. Do you expect a new force to emerge under the authorities’ policy of blurring the political field?     

Such forces regularly emerge, but I do not think there will be a new powerful force able to radically change the situation. Armenia knows no single case of emergence of a politician from nowhere who would enlist the support of the voters. All the politicians running in the elections have passed a long path.    

Heritage is the only political party to participate in political processes both inside and outside the Parliament. How can you explain this?    

It is really so. We conduct our fight on all possible platforms, because we realize that it is ineffective to fight on one platform only. This is why Heritage has always supported all signs of civil disobedience and public discontent. This has become a kind of basis for civil movements and today we see villagers blocking highways to demonstrate their discontent with the authorities. The fight should also be conducted within the power institutions, because it is only the combination of these two platforms that can make success possible.   

To all appearances, the expected reduction in the Russian gas prices for Armenia will apply to the ultimate consumers as well. Is that the election campaign of the Republicans or are there any intrinsic reasons for that, for instance, the disastrous situation in the economy?    

If there were intrinsic reasons for that, the gas price would be halved instead of being reduced by 10%, especially amid the slumping energy prices in the world market. The world knows no other country with such a small territory, infrastructure and population, where the gas price for the consumers is twice as high as the price on the border. So, no matter how hard the RPA tries to use the gas price in its electoral campaign, it is not the advantage they can include in their assets. If Armenia were a sovereign country, the authorities would not be so corrupt. Otherwise, the authorities would never let the Russian company sell the gas to Armenia at such high prices. Everyone knows that corruption in Armenia is systemic.

Will all due respect to the opposition, I cannot help noting that the main fight for power in Armenia is being conducted within the Republican Party. Serzh Sargsyan has considerably weakened Gagik Khachatryan. Judging by the audio file recently posted on the Internet, Sargsyan is going to finally liquidate the former “superminister” from the political arena. Given the resignation of Karen Chshmarityan and Yervand Zakharyan, who were so close to Prime Minsiter Hovik Abrahamyan, it is clear that Sargsyan is preparing the way to future premiership for himself or for one of his closest people at least. What do you think of the post-electoral fate of Hovik Abrahamyan?

Amid the lack of total disobedience of the citizens, I would not dispute the affirmation that sounded in your question. But such passivity does not at all mean that there can be no large-scale disobedience. The Electric Yerevan is the best evidence of it, even despite the following political speculations on it. Any spark may cause fire and there are all political, economic, social, internal and external prerequisites for that. Discrepancies within the power are also obvious due to the shrinkage of the feeder. This is proved by the fact that Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the rating of Armenia’s eurobonds from Ba3 to B1, at the same time changing the outlook from Negative to Stable. So, amid the shrinkage of the feeder, some politicians started eating others. The worst days of Armenian economy are yet to come. The high-ranking officials realize that the situation is complicated and the discontent is growing even among them. However, I do not think Hovik Abrahamyan has enough resources that would let him compete with Serzh Sargsyan. All the latest appointments from his people are nothing but a part of the reshuffle aimed at prolonging his days in power. It is noteworthy that even if the RPA fails to become an absolute majority in the Parliament and has to form a coalition, Serzh Sargsyan will become the link to be laid in the basis of all the coalitional agreements. And if the RPA receives a majority in the Parliament, Sargsyan will naturally focus all the administrative resources and the prime minister’s position in his hands. So, it makes no difference whether he will become the prime minister or just the head of the party and the “grey eminence”.