Aghasi Yenokyan: Hovik Abrahamyan may well unite with Robert Kocharyan amid a power struggle with Serzh Sargsyan

What do you think of the latest staff reshuffles in the Cabinet and governmental departments? Is it connected with the upcoming shift to the 100% parliamentary system of government and the president’s efforts to mend his fences?

To define the goal, it is necessary to differentiate two main stages of this process. The first is based on an agreement of cooperation between the Republicans and Dashnaks [ARFD Party], which resulted in replacement of three ministers. The second stage bears no relations to either the political affiliations or the skills of the appointees. Simply Serzh Sargsyan appointed ministers from his team, choosing the persons he trusts in. Actually, the president settled two major tasks. He again divided the two ministries that had been united when Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan took his post, as well as fired the ministers Abrahamyan brought with him. I am speaking about Yervand Zakharyan and Karen Chshmarityan.  In fact, the president evidently showed his discontent with the prime minister’s policy. And finally,  ahead of the parliamentary elections, it is of vital importance for Serzh Sargsyan to increase his grip on power on the basis of the new Constitution and Election Code. It is not clear what post he will get after elections, but he will sure need “own” ministers in the new power pyramid.

Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan does not conceal his ambitions and the intention to retain his post in the new system of power. Are the government staff reshuffles aimed against him as the key rival in the power struggle?

Serzh Sargsyan’s key rival is Robert Kocharyan.  Nevertheless, at a certain point, Prime Minister Hovik Abrahamyan may unite with Kocharyan amid the power struggle with Serzh Sargsyan, and the president’s last steps confirm these assumptions. Actually, the power struggle among others explains all the latest resignations.

Is Robert Kocharyan behind the intention of ex-minister of foreign affairs Vartan Oskanian to establish a new political party?

Sure, but Kocharyan tries to act in the political field by means of others, unfortunately.   We could see a similar situation in the case of Prosperous Armenia Party. Now, we are witnessing Oskanian’s efforts to create a new party. Robert Kocharyan was behind both the cases, and Serzh Sargsyan knows this.

Serzh Sargsyan’s efforts to retain his grip on power even after the country shifts to the parliamentary system of government have been evident since the first days of his initiative of Constitutional reform. Will the incumbent president restore “the post of secretary general” to continue governing the country or he will take back the prime minister’s post?

I think Serzh Sargyan will take the prime  minister’s post rather than try to restore “the post of the secretary general” not to fail. The reason is that - accidentally or deliberately, I don’t know - the new Constitution does not assign a ruling role to the Republican Party, like it was with the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. In this light, both de-facto and de-jure, Armenia will be government by the prime minister after 2017. 

You think the republicans have no guarantees to win the elections 2017, don’t you?   

I think they have such guarantees, since the opposition is fading away in Armenia. There is either no opposition or it is manageable. The second guarantee is the new Election Code that actually gives Armenia to oligarchs. The Republican Party is the focus of oligarchs, as there are no oligarchs in other parties.  Nevertheless, Serzh Sargsyan is taking steps to re-insure his power. Even if the new Constitution perfectly fits him and the Republican Party, the country is shifting to the parliamentary system of government and power shifts are more common in parliamentary countries. That is why, Sargsyan tries to create a system able to abort such shift of power.

New Constitution assigns a big role to the so-called “second party” that will receive the largest number of votes after the Republican Party during the elections of 2017.  What party will get that role? 

I think it will be ARF Dashnaktsutyun, which will make a coalition with the Republicans after the elections.  So far, everything is heading in that direction.  ARFD is well aware that the union with the RPA damages its reputation indisputably.  Therefore, it needs strong guarantees that it will remain in power after the parliamentary elections too.  Another political forces that Serzh Sargsyan will give the role of opposition will be Orinats Yerkir Party, I think. It will be quite manageable opposition that will replenish both the government and the opposition.  These two parties are within view in the political field of Armenia so far.

Another wave of outflow of the Prosperous Armenia Party members means that the government does not hurry to reaffirm the commitments it assumed to that Party before the constitutional referendum.  Do you see Prosperous Armenia in the future government and parliament?

No, I don’t. This party will not be let to the future Cabinet I think. Furthermore, it will hardly overcome the threshold to the parliament. 

Forecast is thankless occupation, indeed. Anyway, could you please make any forecast concerning the upcoming elections to the parliament?

It is hard to say what we may witness within the year that is left before those elections. However, I can say that RPA and ARFD have ensured their seats in the future parliament. I think Orinats Yerkir and a small, pro-European party taking shape now will become the opposition in the parliament. The political vector of Armenia in the period after 2017 up to the following elections may change too. I think in the light of the latest geo-political tendencies around Armenia, a pro-European force in the parliament will be an element of re-insurance. I supposed Heritage Party and the Armenian National Congress will occur in the next parliament too.

Actually, there will be no true opposition parties in the parliament of the 6^th convocation either…

I do not think that such forces may enter the parliament.

What did you mean speaking of the geopolitical tendencies around Armenia?

I am speaking about the gradual weakening of Russia’s influence in the world and in our region, particularly.  To keep his influence in the Caucasus, Russia intensified the meetings of its officials with their colleagues in Baku and Yerevan.  The latest Putin-Sargsyan meeting, Moscow’s statements on Karabakh that said nothing about the OSCE Minsk Group amid Baku’s statements that this format has run out fits into this logic.

Do you anticipate that a pro-Russian party, such as the one announced by the president of the Union of Armenians of Russia will emerge in Armenia?

I do not know why it may become necessary in the current situation in the political field. Prosperous Armenia Party has been used as a deterrent against Serzh Sargyan, if the latter attempts to make a step running contrary to Russia’s interests. Serzh Sargsyan got rid of the Prosperous Armenia Party only after aligning with the Eurasian Economic Union. Nevertheless, I think the Georgian scenario may repeat in Armenia and, consequently, Russian oligarch-Armenians may come to power in Armenia.