Russian expert: Deterioration of Russian-Turkish relations result in escalation in Karabakh conflict zone

 The possible meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents before the end of this year is expedient and critically important, Dmitry Suslov, Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs,  Higher School of Economics , Deputy Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEIS), has told an ArmInfo correspondent. He says the probability of the meeting is very high, especially given that the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs have recently stated the willingness of the two countries' presidents to meet. Suslov is convinced that there are both objective and subjective reasons for the meeting. 

"The objective reason is the escalation in the Karabakh conflict zone over the past year, as well as the growth of ceasefire violations and the use of large-caliber weapons. I think the incidents of firing at the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs are especially dangerous because they obviously aim to undermine the diplomatic settlement of the conflict. This is the objective reason of the meeting, which aims to reduce the tension to the level before 2014 at least", he says. 

Another reason, he says, may be the fact that Russia is searching for ways to cooperate with NATO. Suslov thinks that today Moscow is conducting an unprecedented diplomatic offensive policy in the settlement of the Syrian crisis and in other issues.   

"Russia is obviously looking for opportunities to cooperate with the West in settlement of other conflicts in order to demonstrate that it is capable of resolving problems and one of such conflicts may be the Karabakh conflict, where the mediators are Moscow, Paris and Washington. Therefore, such a meeting will be positioned by Russia as a new fact of practical evidence of cooperation with the United States and the West in general," says Suslov. One more reason is the unprecedented deterioration of the Russian-Turkish relations. The expert recalls that Ankara is the key ally of Baku and the matter concerns the Karabakh conflict, too. Having deteriorated its relations with Russia - particularly, over the Syrian problem - Turkey could instigate Azerbaijan to less cooperation and to a more destabilizing policy in the Karabakh conflict settlement process. To prevent such a scenario and to reduce the escalation, a high-level meeting is needed, Suslov says. 

He also considers the statement of the Chief of General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces about Turkey's support to Azerbaijan in "liberation" of Nagorno-Karabakh to be quite natural.  "Ankara has always supported Baku and over the past few years Turkey has switched to a more active policy generally in the region and to the policy of neo-Ottomanism, stating that it will provide Azerbaijan with military support. I think the statements of the Chief of General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces mostly reflect the current trends of the Russian-Turkish relations, which are extremely tense because of Syria. I guess Turkey is trying to blackmail both Moscow and Washington, making them understand that it has a joker - possible failure of the Karabakh conflict settlement. Nevertheless, I don't think Turkey will take that step. It is making just diplomatic statements resembling blackmail," he says. 

At the same time, the expert says that the Co-Chairs' statements about the incident that occurred in the course of the monitoring are political and diplomatic remarks and that US Co-chair James Warlick could have said nothing else even if the ceasefire violators fired point-blank at Warlick. "As mediators, Warlick and other Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group are trying to evade publicly supporting either of the conflicting parties. As an observer, I think it is a correct stand because if the Co-chairs clearly determined where the shot was fired from, it would rule out any high-level meeting not only before the end of this year but also in the foreseeable future," Suslov concludes.