Sergey Kurginyan: Russia's Responses to Azerbaijani and Armenian Impulses are Conditioned by the Rules of Geopolitical Market

 What minuses and pluses are you tracing in Russia’s current Caucasian policy – particularly towards Armenia? What is your opinion on Moscow’s policy on the post-Soviet territory?  

After the collapse of the USSR we have been facing new rules of the reality. I believe that the new type of the Armenian-Russian relations can be built on the basis of our countries' national development only. Therefore, the optimality of the national development is to be Russia's only interest in the relations with Armenia. If this national development implies that Armenia is to have relations with any other country but not Russia, Moscow will simply have to accept it for it realizes there will be a configuration to meet the national interests. Taking into account the current realias and that sooner or later the society's impulses will decide everything, subduing or transforming someone makes no sense. One can contribute to the faster development of these impulses but never control them - this will result in counterreaction. It is another matter that most not only Caucasian but also European countries resemble pots with specific lids with a completely different content boiling inside. Most often these lids appear to be way more pro- Western than the boiling content they cover. In this case we should clearly differentiate the wakening of national spirit from globalism and the lid from the content.

Nevertheless, Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. What tendencies are expected from Moscow towards Yerevan in this context? 

As I understand, modern Russia and Russian president's foreign policy is characterized by the attention they pay to the directions of their national interest - Armenia, for example, or any other state. This is the profile of Putin's policy, which is, properly speaking, not imperial. This policy is targeting at guessing tendencies, seeing where this or that nation and elite is intending to turn - this is for delicate consideration. If Armenia ever wishes to develop a good rapport with Turkey, let it be, it's Armenia's problem. As far as I know no one in Moscow will ever counteract this. They will simply deduce relevant conclusions and elaborate a certain line of conduct.  No one in Moscow will ever blame Armenia for treason. In other words, Russia builds one type of relations with countries of national interest and another type of relations with other countries. I believe that such a policy is normal.

What about Armenia’s national interests?

I cannot say for sure. Armenia's national interest is defined by its domestic conflicting groups and the political elite. I do understand the euphoria of the late 80s, the talks that Armenia would be the USA's foothold in Caucasus. British Petroleum and other companies' interest in the adjacent state shows that this never happened. This caused the new formation of the Armenian policy.  The time for hopes and unconditional utopias has passed. I don't blame anyone for Russia also had the same utopias once. I can't say that someone has gone mad and believed the USA. The Russian elite trusted them just the way other post-Soviet countries did.

 Many believe that the Karabakh conflict defines Armenia’s national interest. More people believe that Russia holds the key to the solution to this conflict…

I do not agree with people who say that Russia holds the key to the solution to the Karabakh conflict. I do not see that, therefore I do not share that misbelief. I would like to get evidence on Russia manipulating the Karabakh conflict. I wouldn't mind tht but I do not see it. Russia moves on in accordance with its own national interests - that is reciprocating the impulses of the adjacent territory. Therefore, Russia relevantly responds to both Azerbaijani and Armenian impulses. This reaction is a part of a peculiar geopolitical market. Here Russia monitors the development of tendencies by responding to reality and moving the wheel relevantly.  This is Russia's multi-vector nature. Kremlin realizes that neither Russian embassy, not residentura or Russian Armenians control Armenia.  The national elite, the complex alloy of elite and national tendencies control Armenia. I believe, Kremlin simply monitors the track of these tendencies.

 You have characterized some countries as pots with specific lids with a completely different content boiling inside. What boils in Armenia and what sort of a lid covers that pot?

 It is rather difficult to estimate this in case of Armenia. I keep an eye on Eastern European countries and I can assure you that this is happening in Bulgaria. I believe that Italy, Greece, Spain and even France will soon witness these processes. I think that in Ukraine everything has been split into several civilization modules each of which having different directions. The Greek “Sirisa” or Italian “5 Star” Movement speak about their nations’ discontent with their lids. Ythis means, there are direct indexes there, which I cannot tell I see in Armenia now. I see no bodies that express the dissent between the people and the elite. 

 The Armenian authorities were long aspiring for the European Association; meanwhile ordinary citizens were aspiring to join the Trade Union. Doesn’t this speak for the different content of the pot and lid?

 Might be. Then why has there been no relevant referendum held in Armenia?

Lausanne agreements on Iran's nuclear program have created new prospects for a new reality. How do you see this?

 I do not share the optimism about it. I do share the opinion of religious leader Khamenei, who said, "If you are so eager to conduct these talks, do that. Let's see what happens next." Naturally, we will be very glad to see progress in this matter.  However, my teammates and I do not believe in such rosy prospects.

Based on the existing phobias and the negative experience the Armenian society is rather concerned over the Russian-Turkish economic convergence. Do you share these concerns?

I think the Russian-Turkish relationship is much subtler than it seems to be. Generally speaking, the relationship with Turkey is an incredibly complicated process. That country is still on a crossroad.  It has not yet found its place in the world. The main economic projects with Russia are still being checked and tested. All this is being done very carefullyIf Russia sought to take Turkey's side; Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have attended the Armenian Genocide Centennial events in Yerevan on April 24. I would not say that Armenia's policy with respect to Turkey is not unambiguous either for there are various internal streams in Armenia. The notorious anti-Turkish sentiments in Armenia are not unlimited. We perfectly see pro-Turkish streams in the Armenian elite as well.