Political scientist: Pashinyan`s statements about the adoption of a new Constitution of Armenia indicate that the Armenian Prime Minister has found himself in a multi-layered political impasse

ArmInfo. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's recent statements regarding the adoption of a new Constitution indicate that he has found himself in a multi-layered political impasse, attempts to resolve which could lead to an unprecedented domestic political crisis.

Political scientist Suren Surenyants expressed this opinion on his Facebook page, reacting to Pashinyan's statement to journalists that "following the discussion held yesterday in the National Assembly, the likelihood that snap parliamentary elections will not be necessary has increased." Moreover, as the expert recalled, Pashinyan stated that he intends to present the opposition with an offer they cannot refuse. However, according to the political scientist, this optimism has no serious political basis. "Firstly, Pashinyan unwittingly admits that the agenda for amending Armenia's Constitution is conditioned by Azerbaijan's demands, thereby demonstrating the bankruptcy of his own propaganda thesis about 'unprecedented sovereignty.' Secondly, Pashinyan is attempting to turn the cause-and-effect relationship on its head. However, it wasn't Armenia's parliamentary opposition that made the constitutional amendment a prerequisite for signing a peace treaty, but Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Aram Vardevanyan merely raised a fundamental question: what guarantee is there that Azerbaijan won't make new demands on Armenia after amending the Constitution? Pashinyan doesn't and can't have a convincing answer to this question," Sureniants asserted.

Meanwhile, as the political scientist noted, Azerbaijan's behavior gives reason to doubt that its strategic goal is signing a peace treaty with Armenia. "Baku is essentially waiting for a specific regional scenario to squeeze the maximum out of Armenia. Should the US and Israel take further military action against Iran, the balance of power in the region could change significantly. In such a scenario, it cannot be ruled out that Azerbaijan will try to take advantage of the geopolitical upheaval, even attempting to annex Syunik. This is an assessment of the potential risk, which would be unwise to ignore," the expert believes.

Surenyants is also confident that Pashinyan's hopes of convincing the parliamentary opposition are practically devoid of political foundation. In this regard, he recalled that the Strong Armenia and Armenia factions categorically reject the idea of amending the Constitution at Azerbaijan's request. In this regard, he described as most dangerous Pashinyan's possible reliance on exerting public pressure on the parliamentary opposition, similar to the events of October 2018 (when Pashinyan led his supporters into the streets and surrounded the Armenian parliament building to force deputies to participate in early parliamentary elections - ed.).

At the same time, according to the political scientist, even in this situation, Pashinyan is ignoring two significant circumstances. "Firstly, today he no longer possesses the public trust and mobilization resources he had in 2018. Secondly, it is difficult to imagine broad public unity around an agenda that, no matter how it is presented with promises of peace, is directly linked to the demands of the President of Azerbaijan. In a deeply polarized society, such an initiative may not resolve the political crisis, but rather deepen the internal political confrontation, even to the point of civil unrest. Pashinyan finds himself in a situation where, essentially, there is no good solution. Even in the event of early elections, where the Armenian Prime Minister could find himself in the position of a chess player caught in zugzwang (when any action leads to a worsening of the position or a loss - ed.)," Sureniants concluded.