Political Scientist: Repressions in Armenia aimed at reshaping  balance of power, centers of influence, and economic ownership

ArmInfo.  The ongoing repressions in Armenia have several levels, and none of them, in essence, have anything to do with establishing justice or the rule of  law. Political scientist Suren Surenyants writes about this in his  article.

According to him, if the goal were to strengthen the rule of law, the  law enforcement system would act not selectively and for political  expediency, but according to universal and predictable rules. "The  first and most discussed explanation for the repressions is domestic  political retribution. Through criminal prosecution, forceful  pressure, and administrative leverage, the authorities are attempting  to weaken or neutralize undesirable political, economic, and social  centers. However, explaining what is happening solely through this  logic would be overly simplistic. The elections are over, the  immediate problem of power reproduction has been resolved, and the  pressure not only continues but is becoming more systemic. Therefore,  it is necessary to understand what new problems are being addressed  in post-election Armenia through repressive policies. This is where a  second level emerges-the factor of external obligations. Extremely  sensitive issues that will soon appear on the government's agenda  include the adoption of a new Constitution, the return of enclaves,  and the implementation of new agreements within the framework of  Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. These decisions could provoke serious  public and political resistance," the political scientist noted.

In this context, Suren Surenyants believes, the hypothesis that Nikol  Pashinyan is attempting to weaken organized centers of potential  resistance in advance is at least worth discussing. Repression, he  argues, is becoming a means of creating a favorable environment for  future political processes. In other words, the target may be not  only today's political opponents, but also tomorrow's potential  centers of resistance. However, even these two explanations don't  fully capture the depth of what's happening. There's a third factor,  perhaps the most systemic and with long-term consequences: a shift in  Armenia's strategic course.

"Over the past three decades, Armenian-Russian strategic relations  have not been limited to interstate ties. A broad system of  political, economic, business, cultural and social relations has  formed around them, with its own institutions, centers of influence,  connections and interests. Today, it is precisely this environment  that is being consistently destroyed. A change in strategic course  also implies a restructuring of the country's internal structure. If  the government removes Armenia from the previous geopolitical system,  it is logical to assume that it will also try to weaken or eliminate  those political, economic and social centers that were formed and  gained influence within this system. From this point of view,  repressions are already acquiring structural significance. The target  is not only political opponents, but also centers with independent  resources, influence and social connections, not controlled by the  authorities and capable of hindering the internal and external  reorganization of the country. However, dismantling the old system  inevitably raises another question: what will be created in its  place? Political and economic influence abhors a vacuum. If old  centers are weakened or destroyed, new ones are formed in their  place. And here we can already see The prospect of forming a new  oligarchy with new privileged enterprises, new owners, new external  connections, and new mechanisms of dependence on the government.  Thus, the process taking place in Armenia is much deeper and more  comprehensive. In one case, the government neutralizes political  rivals; in another, it weakens those centers that could resist  possible decisions regarding a new constitution, enclaves, or  external agreements.  However, at the third, most profound level, it  is restructuring the country's political and economic system,  bringing it into line with Armenia's new strategic orientation. These  three levels complement each other. If this logic is correct, then  the real goal of the ongoing repressions is much deeper than  depriving individuals of freedom or silencing political opponents. It  is about reformatting the balance of power in Armenia, centers of  influence, economic ownership, and, ultimately, the country's  political and geopolitical structure. The main question is: what kind  of Armenia is being built through these repressions and whose  interests will the emerging new system serve? - asks the political  scientist.