Political Scientist: In international relations, even decisions  concerning historical justice determined by strategic interests of  states

ArmInfo.The Israeli government's decision to officially recognize the Armenian Genocide, which still needs to be approved by the Knesset, is undoubtedly a  significant political event. However, when assessing it, one should avoid emotional approaches and analyze the decision based on the military-political realities at hand. Political scientist Suren Surenyants shares this view.

On his Facebook page, the political scientist primarily drew  attention to the profound crisis in Israeli- Turkish relations,  rather than to the significant change in Israel's attitude toward the  tragedy that occurred a century ago. "For decades, Tel Aviv avoided  officially recognizing the Armenian Genocide to avoid jeopardizing  its strategic relationship with Ankara.

Today, when these relations have reached a historic low, the same  issue has become a tool of political pressure on Turkey. For example,  Turkey suspended all trade with Israel in 2024; in November of that  year, the Turkish president announced his intention to sever  diplomatic relations; and during the Gaza War, Ankara consistently  maintained harsh rhetoric, supported Hamas, and joined international  legal initiatives against Israel. Thus, the government's decision is  driven less by historical justice than by current geopolitical  calculations. If the political situation changes, it cannot be ruled  out that this issue will lose its priority on the Israeli agenda,"  the political scientist noted.

Secondly, he continued, Israel continues to view the Holocaust as an  exceptional tragedy in human history.  This approach has shaped Tel  Aviv's cautious policy toward the Armenian Genocide for many years,  limiting the development of similar political assessments of other  genocides. Third, even if the Knesset approves the government's  decision, it is unlikely to significantly change the nature of the  strategic partnership between Israel and Azerbaijan. This  relationship is based on security, intelligence, energy, and  military-technical cooperation and played a significant role in  shaping both the 44-Day War and the post- war regional realities.  "Therefore, recognition of the Armenian Genocide will most likely not  affect the foundations of this strategic alliance," believes Suren  Surenyants.

Fourth, he adds, Israel continues its aggressive policy toward Iran.  A further deepening of this confrontation could create new risks in  the South Caucasus, the negative impact of which Armenia cannot  ignore. Therefore, Yerevan is obliged to assess these processes not  only from the perspective of historical justice, but also from the  perspective of national security.

Fifth, as the political scientist noted, Israel's actions in the Gaza  Strip have seriously damaged the country's international reputation.  A significant portion of the international community, numerous  states, and reputable human rights organizations accuse Israel of  gross violations of international humanitarian law and acts of  genocide. Clearly, Israel has significantly lost its moral authority  as a defender of humanitarian values.

Finally, if the government's decision is approved by the Knesset, it  could somewhat limit Azerbaijan's ability to maneuver between Turkey  and Israel. "However, it is difficult to expect Armenia to fully take  advantage of this new situation while its foreign policy continues to  suffer from limited subjectivity, a lack of initiative, and a crisis  of strategic thinking. In international relations, even decisions  concerning historical justice are typically determined not by moral  principles, but by the strategic interests of states.  Therefore, it  is precisely on this basis that the Israeli government's decision  today should be assessed," Suren Surenyants emphasized.