Expert: Armenia and Azerbaijan are participating in the US geopolitical game to encircle Iran

ArmInfo. Armenia and Azerbaijan are participating in the US geopolitical game to encircle Iran, and the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) will play a key role in this game. This opinion was expressed by renowned political strategist Semyon Uralov on the program "Shelest Faktov."

Regarding Armenia's reorientation toward the West, the expert stated that Armenia's situation is similar to what the EU previously did with Ukraine and Moldova. "The situation with Armenia is very similar; the elites have been funneling money for a long time, but they have their own geography there. That is, they are oriented toward France, where there is a strong Armenian diaspora, and the United States," the expert believes.

At the same time, he is convinced that Armenian society, like that of Ukraine, for example, is focused on Russia and, to a large extent, Iran. "Few people even mention this. But it is very, very important, since Iran has never closed its borders to Armenia. Moreover, I personally witnessed-either in 2013 or 2014- numerous Iranian buses traveling to Armenia through the Armenian-Iranian border in the south of the republic. In other words, the flow of Iranian tourists is one of the country's main sources of tourism. And today, Armenia's current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, with his actions, is dealing a serious blow to his own country's interests," Uralov asserted.

To support his assertion, he cited data on Armenia's exports, which are primarily oriented toward Russia.  The expert noted that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia's mechanical engineering sector practically collapsed, and Armenia's exports are primarily focused on food products and labor, which are aimed at Russia and the Russian market.

"And, in general, this crisis, which has been developing since Pashinyan came to power, is obvious, as evidenced by the population outflow. But there are also people who have found their place, or have nowhere else to go, as well as those who left to earn money and are supporting those who remained in the republic," he noted.

At the same time, the political strategist is confident that the EU could, in principle, support Armenia, which is shifting its development vector toward Europe, with a system of grants. "Armenia is very small, but it has a strategically important position. One might ask, why is Pashinyan pushing things so hard? Of course, we are talking about Iran's strategic encirclement, the so-called 'Trump Route' (TRIPP). And this isn't just about encircling Iran; arms shipments are also planned along this route. We remember that Azerbaijan joined in the first stage of the American-Israeli attack on Iran: this is both support for Israel and a provocation against Iran," the expert noted.

According to him, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, however, quickly realized that the blitzkrieg had failed and backtracked, making a tactical, but not strategic, retreat. Uralov is confident that TRIPP will be implemented, meaning Iran will be encircled.

"That is, this won't just be an economic route. They plan to transfer all the bogeymen from the Middle East along this route. That's how the US and the British operate: they first create a major chaos in the region, provoke a civil war, and then direct those people who only know how to handle a gun to a specific target," he noted, citing Syria as an example.

Uralov is confident that they will encircle Iran from the north and, in the second or third stage, launch a strike that will affect not only the Islamic Republic but also Russia. He recalled that the international North- South transport corridor runs from the Arctic Ocean to the Indian Ocean. "So, the Caspian Sea is destined to become a transportation hub linking Russia with Iran. And Russia and Iran have a political-economic balance-it ensures uninterrupted supply of goods. The Western coalition's second idea is to turn the Caspian into a zone of confrontation to disrupt our North-South corridor. This is the strategic plan that not only Pashinyan, but also Aliyev, as well as the new authorities in Syria, are playing with today," Uralov asserted.

According to him, the Middle East is currently burning, and Transcaucasia will be next. In this vein, the expert wondered whether the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan really think this won't affect them. "Many thought so. And former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad thought so, but the mousetrap snapped shut. So, this mousetrap will definitely snap shut, but not now, but during the next round of attacks against Iran," the expert stated.

As a reminder, on August 8, 2025, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a seven-point joint "Declaration of Peace" in Washington. It provides for a joint appeal to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to terminate the OSCE Minsk Process and related structures, as well as the creation of a transport corridor through Armenian territory that will connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan exclave, surrounded by Armenia, Turkey, and Iran. On January 14, 2026, the Armenian Foreign Ministry published the framework document signed with the American side in Washington for the implementation of the Trump Roadmap for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). The 12-page document presents the project's main objectives and operational mechanisms.  Among other things, the document emphasizes Armenia's intention to sanction and support the establishment of the TRIPP Development Company. The company is expected to be responsible for the development of the TRIPP project, receiving an initial development right for a period of 49 years. Armenia intends to offer the United States a 74% stake in TRIPP Development Company, retaining 26%. This partnership is expected to be extended for another 50 years, with an additional ownership stake granted to the Armenian government, bringing its stake to 49%.