Opinion: Situation  within Armenia and on its borders will largely  depend on developments surrounding Iran

ArmInfo. Political scientist and orientalist Karine Gevorgyan believes that the elections in Armenia must take place at a time of greatest strategic  uncertainty.

The expert expressed her conviction that the situation both within  Armenia and on its borders will largely depend on developments  surrounding Iran. She explained this by the fact that Tehran, through  its political and military behavior, is already proving to the world  that it is impossible to ignore the subjectness of a 1,000-year-old  civilization. "The authorities in today's Armenia are trying to sit  on different chairs, or on both the horse and the timid doe, that is,  on both Europe and the United States with this peace agreement with  Azerbaijan and the decision to build the TRIPP corridor. Apparently,  the TRIPP agreement is being cancelled after all, especially since  the Iranians have clearly stated that they will not allow this. The  investors who initially announced their intentions have left,"  Gevorgyan noted.

According to her, this raises the question of which group has the  most competence in understanding macropolitical and mesopolitical  processes. The expert suggested that perhaps the current team has  gained some experience, but there are noticeable concerns and  anxiety, perhaps even at a subconscious level, that in the current  context of global change, their subjectness is low and their own  choices mean little. "And what will the situation be like? This isn't  2026, but 2028 (apparently 2026-2028 - ed.). And now there will be  these seesaws, contradictory actions," she said, while acknowledging  that mistakes always happen, but the question is how to reflect on  them.

Speaking about the relationship between Yerevan and Moscow, she  acknowledged that there is a problem, and everyone has already  recognized it. "Yerevan, as a so-called protectorate in Russia's zone  of interests, will gain more, and if it doesn't, then it faces  enormous danger. That is, we need to understand the scope of our  tasks and very frankly state that our task is to ensure the security  of the Russian Federation. And Russia's security lies in the fact  that, no matter what, Armenia have signed an agreement on a Russian  military presence on Armenian territory, and this must be  maintained," she said. Gevorgyan is also confident that Armenian  society, which is experiencing post-traumatic apathy, is not affected  by words like "if we leave, the Turks will be there to take our  place." She believes that the anxiety currently plaguing society must  be transformed into energy, not wasting energy on speculating about  what will happen tomorrow, but simply by soberly assessing the  current situation.