Opinion: Kazakhstan cannot aspire to a `sovereign` policy on  geopolitical scale, but Astana`s task is to achieve maximum results  with minimal means

ArmInfo.  Kazakhstan cannot aspire to a "sovereign" policy on a grand geopolitical scale, but Astana's task is to achieve maximum results with minimal means, while  trying to avoid a head-on collision with geopolitical giants. This is  the opinion of Sergei Markedonov, PhD in history, leading researcher  at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute of  International Studies at MGIMO University, and editor-in-chief of the  journal "International Analytics."

Touching on the emergence of the South Caucasus on Kazakhstan's foreign policy radar, the expert noted that in April 2026, the words "South Caucasus" and "Kazakhstan" began  appearing together in the media and on social media more frequently  than usual due to Kazakh Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev's  official tour of the Caucasus states.

The Russian political scientist recalled that Kosherbayev held talks  with the Prime Ministers of Georgia and Armenia, Irakli Kobakhidze  and Nikol Pashinyan, and was also received by Azerbaijani President  Ilham Aliyev.

"The main topics of the talks were strengthening bilateral relations,  but above all, transport and logistics issues in the context of  global and regional transformations. The topic of Kazakhstan was also  raised in the context of the development prospects of the South  Caucasus Railway (SCR). However, there are more questions than  answers here," Markedonov believes.

In this vein, he noted that the headlines of many publications  dedicated to the Kazakh minister's Caucasus tour relied on the idea  of "Astana's arrival" in one of Eurasia's most complex regions. The  expert added that, as is often the case, current events prevent a  deeper look at the problem and prevent a superficial adherence to the  "current agenda."

"Today, the trend of the 'internationalization' of the South Caucasus  is being intensely discussed in expert circles. Russia's influence is  no longer exclusive; the countries of the region themselves are  striving for diversification. However, discussions about external  players are limited to either the prospects of the notorious TRIPP,  Turkey's growing influence, or China's growing attention to  Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia," Makedonov believes.

According to him, such an important trend as the post-Soviet states'  increased activity outside their "regions" is being unfairly  overshadowed. Meanwhile, the political scientist is confident that  recently, not only has Kazakhstan shown increasing interest in the  Caucasus, but also Azerbaijan and Georgia-in Central Asia as a whole,  and in individual Central Asian states.

"Kazakhstan cannot aspire to a 'power' policy on a grand geopolitical  scale," wrote Russian political scientist and journalist Alexander  Karavaev. However, he also aptly noted that "Astana's task is to  achieve the greatest possible results with minimal means," while  trying to avoid a head-on collision with geopolitical giants. It's  worth noting that the Kazakh leadership had been making inroads into  the Caucasus long before the advent of the "new normal" in the  region, the expert emphasized.

Markedonov continued his remarks by suggesting recalling the 1991  Zheleznovodsk Communique on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, as well  as the 2010 OSCE summit in Astana (under Kazakhstan's chairmanship),  where this same issue was a central one. Of course, the same applies  to the increased investment in the Georgian economy in the mid-2000s,  when Kazakhstan gained a strong position in both the banking sector  and Georgia's recreational industry.

"Thus, Astana's current revitalization of the Caucasus region draws  on both certain traditions and experience. Ties with Azerbaijan are  perhaps the closest (we share the Caspian Sea, after all). This  includes energy, Caspian port infrastructure, and participation in  the economic development of Karabakh. The issue of territorial  integrity has always united Baku and Astana. Georgia is a key link  for Kazakhstan's access to the Black Sea. In matters of territorial  integrity, the two countries largely follow the same pattern as  between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Until recently, Astana's relations  with Yerevan were more reserved.  This, however, did not prevent  cooperation through the EAEU. Nevertheless, during Nikol Pashinyan's  visit to Astana last November, the two countries agreed to develop a  strategic partnership," the political scientist noted.

Markedonov noted that Kazakhstan is positioning itself, on the one  hand, as Russia's ally and an important participant in Eurasian  integration projects, but also as a reliable partner of the US and  the EU, having joined Trump's Peace Council initiative. "There is  also a third party-the Organization of Turkic States, which is  particularly interesting in the context of building relations with  Azerbaijan and developing ties with Turkey, whose involvement in  Caucasian affairs is growing year by year," the expert concluded.