Friday, April 22 2016 14:31

What was the prime cause of the April war, in your opinion? Who initiated it and who contributed to the aggression against Karabakh people? 

 

Now we are observing two processes. The first one is a global process and the task is to maintain the current world order, which numerous forces want to destroy. The forces seek to destroy the material resources and depopulate entire regions. The second process stems from some countries' intention to play geopolitical games. Judging by the analysis of the West's statements and Russia's reaction to these statements, I can say that the United States and Russia have agreed on the South Caucasus issues in general and on Nagorno- Karabakh in particular.  Today it is Russia that will settle the problems in the region. I think it is another mahaha-mahoola for people. There is no confidence in the world. Russia and the US are the key players in today's global confrontation. I believe the information about the division of influence areas can mean only one thing - to prepare a cunning blow by involving the adversary in something capable of deteriorating its positions for a retaliatory blow. Against this background, the April war fully fits into the logic of the specified geopolitical developments. The war against Artsakh did not start on April 2. It broke out much earlier - on January 26, when PACE adopted the resolution on Sarsang, which overtly called Armenia an occupant.

 

The logic is clear. What it the bottom line?  

 

Due to the 'four-day war', Russia has received excellent opportunities to settle geopolitical tasks meeting its interests unless the forces competing with Russia for the influence on the South Caucasus pose any obstacles. But the obstacles are already being observed and more obstacles are yet to come.     

 

So, does it mean that the West keeps aloof and Russia is to resolve the Karabakh conflict?  

 

Yes, it does. Russia has been given an international carte blanche to resolve the Karabakh conflict. The OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs totally support Russia's line. But Russia has already come across some problems. The first of them is the anti-Russian sentiments in the Armenian society. The first publication of the decisions to be taken on Karabakh will prompt protests in both Armenia and Azerbaijan and may trigger absolutely new challenges. The global game around Russia is described as an explosion of Ukraine and Turkey under Russia, and now it is the turn of the South Caucasus to explode under Russia.

 

So, we are observing something like a giveaway, aren’t we?

 

Super-careful Ilham Aliyev was given certain guarantees, otherwise he would have resorted to no such shady undertaking. Aliyev has received the guarantees from the West in general and the United States in particular. First of all, Turkey was instigating Aliyev to do it, but Turkey had no significance to make Aliyev unleash the hostilities. Turkey only prepared the Azerbaijani armed forces for the April war, sent instructors and fighters, thereby doing for Baku everything it keeps doing for the ISIS. Certainly, Turkey would like to see more extensive hostilities in Karabakh, but Ankara plays only a puppet role in all these games. Erdogan is trying to become something bigger, but the West does not let him do that. It is the global actors that play. Aliyev received personal security guarantees in Washington and Moscow.

 

What about the role of the Armenian leadership and the Armenian army? 

 

The Armenian authorities have been performing only one function since the beginning of the 2000s - they have been robbing their own people. However, it has become unexpected that in the world's point of view also the Armenian authorities' functions are limited to robbery. The formula of Armenia's leadership is as follows "Let be rob and I will do everything you tell me". Such a formula satisfies everyone except the Armenian people. But the global players and the thieves are not concerned with such a small detail. As a result of Aliyev's April adventurism, the myth about the combat effectiveness of the army and the myth about the capacities of the authorities in Yerevan demolished. It has become clear that the army was also robbed the same way as the whole country. And the only strength of the army was the Armenian people, which in the truest sense of the word have replaced stolen body armors with the bodies of their soldiers. It was the behavior of the Armenian authorities that made the four-day war inevitable. In the conditions created by the Armenian authorities, the war was meant to start and become a quite advantageous instrument for the external players for solving their geopolitical tasks. 

 

Did the Armenian soldiers’ actions – even without body armors – change the geopolitical plans of the major actors?

 

Of course, they did. Had those plans come true, everything would be much worse and Armenia would find itself in a completely different geopolitical situation with quite a different level of external dictate. There are two realities following the war. The Armenian people repelled the aggression while the forces promoting western policy in Armenia received fertile ground for their activities. Russia should have realized long ago that in Armenia it also deals with the Armenian people. Maybe the people are not noticed behind the crowds of robbers and rascals but the people actually exist, they make their own conclusions and cannot be ignored. Until quite recently the Armenian people undoubtedly considered Russia as an ally. 90% of the elite sold themselves but the people did not follow the elite and they had their own opinion about Russia. Today this opinion has worsened dramatically and this was one of the goals of the global players. Armenian people should not have been shown that two-facedness is spread also among the top leadership in Russia. It was a huge mistake. I see that Russia tries to rectify this mistake but the situation remains complicated.

 

Did Moscow have any alternative to its actions during the April war? Or did the strict neutrality between the conflicting parties lack any alternative?

 

Prior to the April events, Russia made 9 wrong steps, after which it had no other alternative than taking the tenth step. Russia is not in such a catastrophic condition that it has to put to question its successful participation in the global game for the profit received from selling weapons to Azerbaijan.

 

What can Armenia and Artsakh expect from the actively announced intensification of the negotiations on Karabakh? 

 

The negotiations will be held amid big tension in both Armenia and Azerbaijan. Since 2008 in Armenia the power represented by Serzh Sargsyan has been on one side and the people have been on the other side, with the 'mafia special forces' being in between. If the need for any concessions arises, Serzh Sargsyan will have to explain the necessity of these concessions to Bako Sahakyan and to the Karabakh residents, and 'the special forces' will decide what Sargsyan should do. Serzh Sargsyan has made the people ignorant in order to rob them more easily. Now Sargsyan wants to see the people as an actor. This is what Levon Ter-Petrosyan called for, by the way. But the people will not play the game of retaining the mafia forces at power. However, the people will be used in the game. Ilham Aliyev will be playing a similar game in Azerbaijan. Probably, this may lead Azerbaijan to chaos. It is Russia that should look into all these nuances because it has been delicately made to do it. Russia will be unable to make sense of it and will therefore get stuck in it. So, maintenance of the status quo is a matter of goodwill for Moscow. Otherwise, Putin will be blown up in the geopolitical space he has long been begging for. In Karabakh, Russia has been caught in a trap and it will be very hard for Russia to get out of it.