Wednesday, February 25 2015 07:35

 

What geopolitical factor is behind
the escalation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the Line of Contact in
Karabakh conflict zone? 

I think the reasons of the January tensions on the
Armenian- Azerbaijani border and on the Line of Contact in Nagorny Karabakh are
to be sought in Ukraine. For some unknown reasons, in Azerbaijan and Armenia
they perceived the situation in Ukraine as a 'favorable' condition for
demonstrating their might and combat efficiency. The point is that Azerbaijan
has expectations from the Russia-West confrontation around Ukraine.  In Baku they think the West's unprecedented
pressure on Russia over Crimea's annexation is a good chance to unfreeze the
Karabakh conflict. Armenia has its own logic in these processes, given that
Armenia controls over the territories and the process and has bigger chances to
maintain the status quo around Karabakh than Azerbaijan.

Of course, Azerbaijan has new types of offensive arms.
Probably, Armenia also has enough arms. Therefore, Baku tries to use its arms
to strengthen its positions in the near border regions. It is within Baku's
interests to maintain stability on the borders with Armenia and disturb the
imbalance on the Line of Contact.

You see certain role of the
Ukrainian crisis in the ceasefire breaches in Karabakh, don’t you? How does
that crisis affect the stances of the OSCE MG co-chairs in the region?

The Ukrainian crisis was to make the actions of the
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs more flexible. At least, they should have
intensified the meetings with the parties to the conflict through sending more
messages to the conflicting societies and more strongly pushing the Madrid
principles forward. By the way, I have recently told that to the co-chairs.
Unfortunately, they are not flexible enough.

You say the co-chairs lack
flexibility, could you please elaborate?

They had to distance themselves from the authorities a
little bit and work with the societies and political groups in the countries of
the conflict. The co-chairs see and hear how everybody, including by the
authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan, has criticized them. Nevertheless, we
have never seen open debates of the co-chairs with the authorities or
societies.

 However, today nothing holds the co-chairs from openly
communicating with the authorities and at the same time making contacts with
the conflicting societies more actively. In such a way, I think, the OSCE MG
will demonstrate to the authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan the availability
of the alternative channel with the help of which they will be able to affect
the societies of both states, not through the press or Twitter, but directly
-through open debates in Baku, Yerevan and Stepanakert.

This will create quite different situation at the
talks and will force the authorities to be more constructive in reaching
settlement. But taking into account the fact that they did not do that, the
authorities have managed to criticize the co-chairs even more. They also
managed to tune the societies against Russia, the USA and France.

Don’t you think that the interests of
the co-chairs and the authorities of Armenia and Azerbaijan coincide, and that
their mutual unwillingness to settle the conflict is the reason of the OSCE
MG's idleness?

I don’t think so. The co-chairs are not wonder mongers
and cannot change the mood in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Karabakh with a
whisk.  They simply have no direct
influence on the authorities and societies.

Why? The Baku authorities regularly
urge super powers to ‘press Armenia and give Karabakh to Azerbaijan.’ Do you
think it possible in the current geopolitical situation?:  

 

Being well aware of the structure and mandates of the
intermediaries, I can state for sure that the OSCE MG is not the very institute
that can impose pressure upon the parties to the conflict. However, like
separate entities, the USA and the EU may impose pressure upon Armenia and
Azerbaijan for "disobedience", and for instance, move the leadership
of these countries to more secure platform for negotiations. President of
France Francois Hollande offered just this during the last meeting of the
presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Paris. This became a good signal for
preparing a big peace agreement both for Yerevan and Baku. Nevertheless, the
OSCE MG, Russia, EU and U.S. can impose no pressure upon Armenia and Azerbaijan
in the matter of Karabakh.  No president
of Armenia and Azerbaijan  will ever sign
a paper which confronts the interests of his country. They can just make an arrangement
and create an atmosphere of trust, but not force the societies to peace.

Nevertheless, the crisis around
Ukraine has had either positive or negative impact on the positions of super
powers in the South Caucasus, hasn’t it? 

I think, the annexation of the Crimea has turned
Russia into a more dangerous player in the South Caucasus. I think that the
Armenians and Azerbaijanis will be disappointed much with the role of Russia in
the OSCE Minsk Group. I don't think that it will be favorable to Armenia to
lose Karabakh in favor of Russia, and to Azerbaijan - to lose the possible war.
It is still stemming from the interests of Russia to keep the Karabakh conflict
unsettled.

The
annexation of the Crimea has made Russia much more dangerous for the West, as
well as for Azerbaijan and Armenia.  By
the Crimea, Russia has broken all the rules of the game. So, in future Russia
may easily act the same way, for instance, regarding Moldova, Armenia or
Azerbaijan. Today they in Baku believe that Europe must punish Armenia for
occupied Azerbaijani lands as it is punishing Russia for the occupied Crimea.
In other words, people in Azerbaijan are losing their respect for Europe
because of its double standard policy. Russia is sustaining geopolitical losses
because of the Ukrainian crisis as many are afraid of it after Crimea. In the
meantime, the Americans are trying to gain a stronger foothold in Europe and to
force the Russians out of there.

In other words, everyone suffers
from the Ukrainian crisis, except the United States.

The Ukrainian crisis has shattered the positions of
Europe and Russia in the South Caucasus and has strengthened the positions of
the United States. So, today the US has the highest chances to put the parties
to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict together at the negotiating table. This
confidence in the US comes from the big role of the local Armenian community
and Azerbaijan's active involvement in pro-American geopolitical projects. Even
the recent persecution of pro-American projects in Azerbaijan has created no
contradictions between Baku and Washington.