In the long-term world natural gas
consumption will increase by 1.9% a year and reach 13.9 billion cub.m. a day by
2035, reads the BP forecast devoted to the situation at the market by 2035.
This research is considered among the most authoritative in the world. 80% of total gas consumption will fall to the
energy and industrial sectors of economy.
The forecast reads that about half of
growth of world gas supply falls to gas extracted in Russia and Near East.
The technically extractive US resources
are estimated at 340 billion barrels of shale oil and 7.5 trillion cub.m. of
shale gas, about 50% of this oil and 30% of gas will be extracted in the US in
the coming 20 years. In the coming years growth of shale oil extraction will
slow down, but shale gas production will increase by 4.5% a year.
US will remain the biggest maker of shale
gas, which ensures now almost all shale gas production and by 2035 their share
in production will constitute 75% and 10% of shale gas will be extracted in
China.
BP also expects growth of deliveries of
liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 7.8% a year from 2013 to 2020.
Europe's share in the world LNG import is
expected to be increased from 16% to 19% from 2013 to 2035.
The forecast reads that at present about
50% of total volume of gas consumption falls to gas import to Europe. Over 80%
of gas is imported via the pipelines, majority of which come from Russia.
"Local gas production will go down by
2% a year in Europe, which means that even with a very insignificant growth of
demand (by 0.8% a year), almost three quarters of Europe's demand in gas will
be satisfied at the expense of import by 2035," reads the forecast.